Macron came out ahead of the first round of the French presidential election, gaining a 24% vote share. Even though he was only three percentage points or so clear of his closest rival, Le Pen, given Macron’s huge lead in the second round head-to-head polls (some 20 percentage points versus Le Pen), and the endorsement of his presidency by losing candidate, Fillon, and current President Hollande [1], he is far and away the favourite to become the next President of the French Republic [2]. Given the French opinion polls were correct – impressively so, one might add –  implying that the outcome

PM May surprised most people last week by announcing that the UK is to hold a snap election on June 8th. Outlining her motivation for calling an early election, something she had previously ruled out, PM May said “[T]he country is coming together but Westminster is not” Her concern is that such large and all-too-visible parliamentary divisions over Brexit hinders her government’s ability to get the best deal out of Brussels [1]. This all sounds very laudable – PM May putting the UK’s economic and financial interests before her personal political ambitions [2]. However, the move is not entirely selfless, it is

French surveyors of public opinion have done a good job so far, with the results from Sunday’s first round of the French presidential race very close to the final set of polls. In line with our central forecast, it is Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen who proceed to the definitive round on 7 May, with the vote reportedly split 61/39 in favour of the centrist candidate. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream Absent a dramatic shift in sentiment, the polls — which were largely accurate in predicting the first-round outcome — ought to give us

With the first round of the French presidential election becoming a four-horse race, markets are right to worry about a Marine Le Pen — Jean-Luc Mélenchon runoff on 7 May. Indeed, momentum behind Mr Mélenchon has seen him become the most credible candidate on the left, triggering heightened uncertainty in financial markets. In our view, French and peripheral yield spreads remain too low, underpricing the risk of the next president of France being a eurosceptic. As political events in Europe unfold, our newly launched section on Thomson Reuters Chartbook, called “European elections”, will provide a useful tool for those who

Campaigning in the French presidential election is drawing to a climax with the first round vote taking place this weekend. The polls strongly suggest that none of the candidates will gain a simple majority, meaning that it is almost certain to go to the second round (slated for May 7th). As we noted in our last Market Insight looking at the French presidential race [1], crowd anger towards the government surged during the campaign, hitting an eleven year high in early March, readings indicative of a large reservoir of public negativity. Although such sentiments are specifically designed to capture views expressed

With less than 10 weeks to go the EU referendum debate in the UK continues to hot up. The UK government is, for the first time in a generation, putting the EU question directly to the electorate. This should be viewed as a positive move and demonstrates democracy in action. However, far from there being a reasoned debate on the pros and cons of continued EU membership, to-date it has become an exercise in scaremongering. Both sides are using scare tactics to fuel emotions which they feel will give them an advantage in the debate. Fear is the most prominent sentiment