The “Three Amigos Summit” on Nov. 18 in Washington D.C. appeared to reinforce President Joe Biden’s shift towards Trumpian protectionism. Biden refused to budge from his position of using tax credits to support domestic production of electrical vehicles, potentially damaging over 50 years of voluntary cooperation and trade integration between U.S. and Canadian firms in the automotive sector. On Nov. 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce stated it will impose duties of 17.9% on imported softwood lumber from Canada, which is twice the previous rate of 8.99%. This shift towards protectionism should be of grave concern for investors as less-open

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s first stability checkup downplays some wobbly features. Chairman Jerome Powell says the financial system is in good health, echoing a report from the U.S. central bank on Wednesday. But risks like trade fights and corporate debt only get brief mentions. The Fed has put greater emphasis on financial stability since the 2008 crisis. In a speech stressing its importance, Powell noted that banks are better capitalized than before the Great Recession. He also said there is “a great deal to like” about the U.S. economic outlook. For example, at 3.7 percent the unemployment rate is at

On Tuesday 9 May, we presented an overview of our Global Economic and Markets Outlook for 2017 Q2 at an event hosted by Thomson Reuters in London. We were joined by former Bank of England policymakers Paul Fisher, Ian Plenderleith and Sushil Wadhwani. Fathom Director Erik Britton began by setting out what, in our judgment, is the most likely outcome for the global economy. Despite wobbles over his initial failure to replace Obamacare, our central scenario sees US President Donald Trump enact a substantial fiscal stimulus package. There is a material pick-up in growth, with the US economy expanding by