To date, 145 of the 199 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2024, representing 73% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 12.9%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 199 companies in this index is 3.5% for Q2 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 49% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

LSEG IFR Markets forecasts a challenging development for Q2 U.S. retail sales, with overall and ex-autos sales anticipated to increase by only 0.2% in May 2024. The control group is expected to fare slightly better with a 0.4% rise, though this still reflects a sluggish start to the quarter following April’s 0.3% decline. Unit auto sales experienced modest growth for the month, reaching an annualized rate of 15.90 million, marking the fastest pace this year. Meanwhile, gas prices have moderated after a period of rapid increases. However, the downturn in home sales since the beginning of the year suggests limited

U.S. December retail sales came in stronger than expected. Retail and food services were up 0.6% month-over-month, and the ex-autos category up 0.4% m/m, suggesting that retailers had a jolly holiday season. Two categories that stood out in December were clothing & clothing accessories stores, where sales were up 1.5% m/m, and department stores, which saw a 3.0% m/m growth. (Exhibit 1) Coincidentally, both these sectors had the most amount of merchandise on sale, and highest discounts during the holiday season. Thus, although consumers have proved to be resilient in 2023, they are also very much value oriented. They have

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q3 earnings index, which tracks changes in the earnings growth rate within the sector, is expected to show a 26.4% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that five of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 204 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the third quarter, recording a 279.1% surge over last year’s level. The second strongest sector is the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure group with a 92.9% growth estimate. In fact, it has been the strongest-performing sector

To date, 139 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2022, representing 69% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 64% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -21.8%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 5.7% for Q4 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 65% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 151 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their earnings results for Q2 2022, representing 74% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 73% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -6.6%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.0% for Q2 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 60% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’

What commodity volatilities mean for consumers Ninety-two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2021 EPS. Of the 186 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 74% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 24% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 48.4%. The Q4 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 13.5%. Seventy percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 30% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv  Rising commodity prices Since the pandemic, The Refinitiv /

Due to inflation, several retailers are already dealing with higher cost of goods and services (COGS) – and dealing with the supply chain crisis. They just finished reporting Q3 earnings; 141 retailers have already discussed inflation worries, and 192 have mentioned the supply issues during their earnings calls. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose again, with the median cost of living increase for next year pushing up from 5.7% to 6.0%. This increase is twice the pace of expectations for income growth, which slid to 2.8% from 3.0%, according to the New York Federal Reserve. As a result, the latest Ipsos

Seventy-nine percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2021 EPS. Of the 160 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 78% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 1% matched and 21% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 14.7%. The Q3 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 14.7%. Sixty-seven percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 33% reported revenue below analyst expectations. EXHIBIT 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Retail earnings As predicted by our StarMine data, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Bath & Body Works all

Seventy-six percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2021 EPS. Of the 153 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 76% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 1% matched and 23% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 29.7%. The Q3 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 14.6%. Sixty-seven percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 33% reported revenue below analyst expectations. EXHIBIT 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Retail earnings As predicted by our StarMine data, Target and Lowe’s smashed their Q3 earnings,

Eighty percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q2 2021 EPS. Of the 164 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 85% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 12% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q2 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 153.9%. The Q2 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 24.3%. Eighty-four percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 16% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Q2 2021 retail earnings This earning week, retailers told us that they are well-stocked for

One of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic has been a shift to consumers “nesting” at home. Consumers were asked to stay at home and became teachers, fixed their homes, ordered takeout, took online workouts, cooking and DIY lessons. This has substantially accelerated the pace and shift to online shopping, which became evident when retailers reported strong digital sales in Q1 2020. Looking forward to anticipated Q2 performance, we used StarMine’s SmartEstimate to determine which companies in the Refinitiv Retail and Restaurant Index are better poised to continue beating earnings estimates. The results tell us that there is a nesting