The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 12.7% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that eight of 10 consumer-related industries have turned positive. (Exhibit 1) (Many retail companies end their fiscal year on January 31 to account for the holiday shopping season, therefore, Q2 ended on July 31.) Of the 199 retailers tracked by LSEG, the broadline retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the first quarter, recording an 83.6% surge over last year’s level.

To date, 180 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2024, representing 90% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 26% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 22.5%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 4.0% for Q1 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 52% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 147 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2024, representing 73% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 74% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 21.8%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 3.9% for Q1 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 51% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

U.S. retail sales smashed expectations in March, with total sales (mkt +0.3% m/m) up 0.7%, ex-autos (mkt +0.4% m/m) up 1.1%, and the control group (mkt +0.4% m/m) up 1.1% as well. This means that Q1 GDP is likely to receive a boost from strong consumer spending. Revisions to February U.S. sales were up, and also came in strong, taking all three measures up 0.3pp to +0.9%, +0.6%, and +0.3% respectively. Non-store retailers and bars and restaurants saw the biggest year/year increase of 11.3% and 6.5%, respectively. This is inline with our LSEG earnings data suggesting that consumers’ preferences are

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 33.7% growth over last year’s levels. However, much of this growth is coming from just two categories and our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 204 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the fourth quarter, recording a 753.3% surge over last year’s level. The second strongest sector is the Restaurants & Leisure group with

Historically, Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after the Black Friday weekend. Cyber Monday discounts tend to be an extension of Black Friday deals for shoppers returning to the office after a holiday weekend, eyeing merchandise online. Like Black Friday this year, Cyber Monday deals are starting earlier in the hopes that shoppers will respond over the weekend. This comes at the heels of third-quarter earnings releases where retailers are providing cautious guidance and are warning of a price-sensitive consumer. So, will the promotions be enough to entice shoppers to open their wallets? LSEG holiday sales forecast Spending for the

To date, 153 of the 205 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2023, representing 75% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 68% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 27% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 26.9%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 205 companies in this index is 4.2% for Q3 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 59% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 17.6% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that six of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1). Of the 199 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Broadline Retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the second quarter, recording a 1040.5% surge over last year’s level. In fact, it has been the strongest performing sector over the past year as consumers’ preferences have pivoted towards services. Making up for

To date, 188 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 92% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 76% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 22% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 33.3%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.5% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 71% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 171 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 84% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 77% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 21% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 33.6%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.6% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 74% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 144 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 71% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 20% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 31.6%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.2% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 78% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

To date, 140 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 67% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 20% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 30.9%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 4.3% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 79% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and