The week of February 6th marked a notable event for the Russell 1000 where the 1-year percent change in the forward 12-month EPS estimate turned negative.  In the last 20 years, this has only occurred on three prior occasions – July 2008, August 2015, and March 2020. Using Refinitiv Datastream, the forward 12-month EPS estimate for the Russell 1000 is currently $236.81 per share compared to $238.18 last year, resulting in a 1-year percent change of -0.6% (Exhibit 1). It is very likely that we continue to see a further decline in this calculation as we progress throughout the year

Last Update: May 5, 2022 Click here to view the full report. Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv. S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 22Q1 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is 10.2%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 4.2%. Of the 413 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 22Q1 79.9% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 22Q1 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 13.2%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth

Higher commodity and wage inflation combined with hawkish interest rate expectations may create a challenging environment for U.S. small-cap stocks. In a prior note (Data Insight: A Turbulent Start to the Year for Global Equities, January 27, 2022), we found that the Russell 2000 has suffered the largest drawdowns to begin the year.  As of February 18th, 29% of constituents have experienced a drawdown of at least 50% or more compared to their 52-week high.  Furthermore, only 31% of constituents are currently trading above the 200-day moving average. Smaller companies will have greater challenges managing higher input costs and typically

January has marked one of the most volatile starts on record and the sell-off in high growth technology stocks was vicious. In a prior note (Data Insight: A Turbulent Start to the Year for Global Equities, January 27, 2022), we observed that technology stocks suffered from the largest drawdown in the Russell 1000 index.  94% of constituents within the information technology sector have experienced a drawdown of at least 10%, while two-thirds of the sector have experienced a drawdown of at least 20%. Netflix Inc, while having GICS Sector of Communication Services and a Refinitiv Business Classification Sector of Technology

January has marked one of the most volatile starts to the year given macro, political, and geopolitical uncertainty.  The VIX index reached 31.2 on January 25th, up 81.0% year-to-date and currently at a one-year high. As a result, most global equity indices have had the worst start to the year since 2008 and are approaching a ‘correction’ which is defined as a 10% drop from the most recent high. Using Refinitiv Datastream, Exhibit 1 looks at the year-to-date performance for the Russell 1000 which is currently down 9.1%.  The chart is a point-in-time comparison, meaning for each blue bar in

We take a closer look at a less-covered area – small-cap stocks.  Looking at the data in more detail, an argument can be made that the small-cap arena (particularly in the U.S.) is providing a compelling investment case.  Recent price momentum, analyst revisions, and earnings growth indicates a positive outlook for small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks have seen a synchronized rise since November 2020 when news of a potential vaccine made headlines.  Smaller companies tend to be domestically oriented with high degrees of leverage and exposure to the local economy.  With a continual gradual re-opening, small-cap stocks have been outperforming large-cap

Last Update: November 11, 2020 Click here to view the dashboard in detail. Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Russell 2000 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions 20Q3 earnings are expected to decrease 14.4% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the expected growth rate for the index is -15.9%. Of the 1,517 constituents in the Russell 2000 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q3, 73.9% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. 20Q3 revenue is expected to decrease 5.3% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the expected growth rate for the index is -6.5%. 69.0% of

Ninety percent of Russell 3000 companies have reported 19Q3 earnings. Of the major U.S. indices shown above, the S&P 500 is the only one that may post positive 19Q3 year-on-year (Y/Y) earnings growth. For this to happen, the remaining S&P 500 companies would need to beat current earnings estimates by 5.7%.

The Russell 2000 is in an earnings recession; however, it will likely end this quarter as companies beat earnings estimates. Currently analysts expect 19Q3 YoY earnings to decline 0.8%. Expectations are low for the financials sector, which represents 20% of the index’s weight. In aggregate Russell 2000 financials companies have reported 19Q3 earnings 4.5% above estimates.  If this continues, it should be enough to push the index into positive earnings growth and end the earnings recession.

President Obama’s last week in office had one thing in common with the start of his presidency, a focus on the Financials sector. However, eight years later, the story is considerably different. One of the other major sectors to change over those eight years is Information Technology.

Click here to view the dashboard in detail. Last Update: March 31, 2017 Download the full S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard report here. S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 8.0% from Q4 2015. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate improves to 8.1%. Of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q4 2016, 68.0% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 64% and below the average over the past four quarters of 71%. The Q4 2016 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.2%. Excluding the energy sector, the revenue growth

Click here to view the dashboard in detail. S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 4.3% from Q3 2015. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate improves to 7.9%. Of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q3 2016, 71% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This is above the long-term average of 64% and above the average over the past four quarters of 70%. The Q3 2016 blended revenue growth estimate is 2.6%. Excluding the energy sector, the revenue growth estimate increases to 4.6%. 55% of companies have reported Q3 2016