Since President Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025, the U.S. has been the worst performing stock market of the entire G7. While Trump likes to shoot from the hip when it comes to economic policy, investors in U.S. assets, it seems, do not appreciate this approach. The uncertainty created by further tariffs is also creating a headache for firms who are trying to figure out how their supply chains are going to be impacted, and to what extent higher costs will reduce their competitiveness, thereby negatively impacting their share prices. Exhibit 1: Performance of G7 stock markets One way

The decision by the Trump administration to put tariffs on imports from China has sent share prices tumbling across the world, as fears over a trade war have risen. A global trade war would have serious, negative consequences for the global economy, but this remains an outside risk in our opinion. It remains to be seen how China will react to the US President’s move, but there are several reasons that we do not anticipate a sharp decline in global trade in response to the announced tariffs. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream First, China’s response has