The FOMC meets next week, faced with an economy facing downside risks to the labour market but still-firm inflation. That they will cut interest rates is not really in question. The Chair widely flagged such a move last month, noting that “the time has come for policy to adjust”. However, he noted that the “timing and pace of cuts” will depend on an “evolving outlook” and the “balance of risks”. While there have been clear signs of labour market softness, this week’s inflation reading was a reminder that upward price pressures persist. The fed funds rate in 2025, which is

One of the Trump administration’s major accomplishments was corporate tax reform. U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden proposes raising the corporate tax rate by 7 percentage points to 28%. If former Vice President Biden is elected and his corporate tax plan is enacted, the S&P 500’s current earnings estimates could see a roughly negative 10.6% impact. Exhibit 1: S&P 500 Y/Y CapEx vs. Effective Tax Rate Note: Based on current constituents and weights The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) cut the U.S. corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. One of the goals of this tax cut was

Presidential candidate Joe Biden has been adamant on raising corporate and personal tax rates if elected in November.  However, there has been a global trend to reduce corporate tax rates and become more competitive.  According to the Tax Database from OECD, 18 of 33 countries have lowered statutory corporate tax rates in the last 10 years.  Most notably, the U.S. significantly lowered corporate tax rates in 2018 from 35% to 21%. Only six countries including Portugal, Turkey, South Korea, Chile, Slovak Republic, and Iceland have raised tax rates in the last 10 years.  Former Vice-President Joe Biden would plan to

Despite the increasingly acrimonious divide between the two major U.S. political parties, staffing shake-ups in the White House, and increased geopolitical tensions over the last year, the U.S. mutual fund business has flourished considerably since the election of President Donald Trump back on November 8, 2016—in both growth of assets under management and performance. While investors continue to cheer the better-than-expected Q3 2017 earnings reports, many still appear to be banking on the sweeping tax reform and infrastructure development promised by the current administration. For the one-year period ended September 30, 2017, U.S. mutual funds’ (including ETFs’) total net assets

As the world begins to digest the result of U.S. Presidential election, Jonathan Davies, lead portfolio manager of the UBS Currency Allocation Return Strategy, discusses the potential impact on markets. He examines how this election outcome relates to currencies, other macro-movers of 2016 and what investment opportunities or threats might manifest themselves moving into 2017. Jonathan is talking with Jake Moeller, Head of Lipper U.K. & Ireland Research at Refinitiv, in London on November 9, 2016. About Jonathan Davies Jonathan Davies is Head of Currency within UBS AM Multi Asset team, based in London. He is responsible for setting currency