It’s not a question that’s typically top of mind, but in the current economic climate, the first question analysts should be asking themselves when researching a company is, “Is it sustainable?” Is the dividend sustainable? Is the business itself sustainable? In normal times, an analyst might first turn to the income statement to examine things like profit, margins and growth rates. Research teams that have added quantitative research to their traditional fundamental research process may turn to Refinitiv’s StarMine alpha models. But in times like these, turn first to the balance sheet and cash flow statement. This is where a

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Eikon Screener by Refinitiv, that we expect to beat 19Q1 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our North American selections for 2018 Q4 positive Predicted Surprises were 100% accurate, which can be seen here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our positive Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 81.9%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements. Our North American picks for positive Predicted Surprises in 2019 Q1 are — Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (FFH.TO), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE.O), Whiting Petroleum Corp (WLL.N), Paccar Inc