In October 2020 we published our top ten second quarter earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics models. Of these 20Q3 North American earnings surprise candidates picks, 90% were correct. The StarMine SmartEstimate®  is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (IBES Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Eikon Screener by Refinitiv, that we expect to beat 20Q3 earnings estimates, based on SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data. Our North American selections for 2020 Q2 positive Predicted Surprises were 100% accurate, which can be viewed here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our positive Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 82.2%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements. Our North American picks for positive Predicted Surprises in 2020 Q3 are — Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN.O), Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM.N), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK.N), Pultegroup Inc (PHM.N), and