January 28, 2019

Chart of the Week: Fathom’s Euro area ESIs point to weaker growth, but not recession

by Fathom Consulting.

Euro area growth slowed substantially in 2018 as the deteriorating external environment removed a substantial tailwind from the euro area’s sails – aside from net trade, the composition of GDP growth through the first three quarters of last year looked broadly similar to 2017. The deterioration in the outlook is evident in measures of sentiment – Fathom’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro area fell by 0.8 percentage points in 2018. However, in spite of this fall, the ESIs remain close to, or above, their long-run averages suggesting that the currency bloc’s expansion will continue this year, albeit at a slower pace.

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