Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) won a re-run of Istanbul’s mayoral elections, opening up a nine-percentage-point lead over the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP). The result has been interpreted as a personal blow to President Erdogan. Not only is Istanbul his hometown and the country’s most populous city and economic engine, but it is also where he forged his political career as mayor 25 years ago. In the short term, the election results will give the CHP control over the city’s $4 billion budget, offering the scope to implement some of its agenda. More broadly, however, the vote has been seen as a sign that Mr Erdogan’s grip on Turkish politics could be fading. In addition to Istanbul, the CHP also runs Ankara and Izmir, Turkey’s second and third largest cities, respectively. This tentative desire for change may reflect a decline in the AKP’s reputation for economic competence following high levels of inflation, and a large depreciation in the lira. Turkish financial assets generally rallied up on the result, with the lira gaining 1.5% against the US dollar when currency markets opened on Monday. Whether this gain is sustained could depend on whether the government reacts to this setback with economic reform, or an opposition crackdown.
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