by Tajinder Dhillon.
In April 2021 we published our 21Q1 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics models. Of these 21Q1 North American earnings surprise candidates picks, 80% were correct.
The StarMine SmartEstimate® is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (IBES Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.
Since 2011 Q4, we’ve posted our top 10 North American candidates for earnings beats and misses. The running total from 11Q4 through 21Q1 of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates is 67.0% and 18.1% for companies that missed. In total StarMine North American positive surprise candidates over that time have been correct 83.1% of the time and correctly called 67.4% of negative surprise candidates.
StarMine North American Positive Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Beat Rate:
StarMine North American Negative Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Miss Rate:
Using SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data, we highlighted 10 companies with a high probability of reporting 21Q1 earnings surprises in the direction we called — five likely to beat the analysts’ consensus estimate and another five likely to fall short.
Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.
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