Tensions between Niger and France have increased further, with Niger revoking the French state-owned nuclear power producer Orano’s mining license for the Imouraren mine in June. Niger, one of the world’s largest producers of uranium and a key uranium supplier to France, based the decision on long production delays: work at the mine was originally scheduled to start in 2015, however development halted in the wake of the slump in global uranium prices following the nuclear accident at Fukushima, Japan in 2011.
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Niger-French relations have deteriorated since last year’s military coup, with diplomatic relations grinding to a halt, particularly following the expulsion of French troops in December 2023. The coup also poisoned Niger’s relations with regional neighbours and with the US (with whom agreement has been reached for troops to withdraw from September 2024). The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) originally sanctioned Niger following the coup, although these sanctions have since been withdrawn on humanitarian grounds. However, the new government has tied itself more closely with fellow junta-led neighbours Burkina Faso and Mali, who saw their own military takeovers in 2022 and 2020/2021, respectively, and who have also kicked out French troops. The three countries have all announced that they will withdraw from ECOWAS while deepening their ties with Russia, specifically in relation to military cooperation.
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Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, all part of the Sahel region of Africa, are ranked among the poorest countries in the world. The 20-year drought, between the 1970s and 1990s, combined with high levels of conflict, corruption and political instability have devastated the economies of the Sahel and left GDP per capita in the region as a whole at less than one-fifth of US equivalent levels. Politics is largely authoritarian, although there is some divergence within the group, with Senegal and Gambia tilted more towards being democratic, as measured by Fathom’s Political Index.
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While the region faces a multitude of challenges, there are also a number of opportunities. For example, all the countries in the region hold considerable amounts of natural resources. In several countries this is petroleum, but equally there are large reserves of precious metals in the region. Guinea, with its massive bauxite reserves, accounting for over a quarter of global reserves according to KPMG Global Mining Institute, is a key supplier of aluminium, an important input in the transition to net zero. The region’s climate also puts it in prime position as a potential solar energy producer. Furthermore, the Sahel, and Niger in particular, have one of the world’s largest youth populations, with more than 60% of the population below 25 years of age, offering enormous potential for growth, all else being equal.
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The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, not necessarily those of LSEG.
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