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The choice between Donald Trump’s nativist America-first policies and a first female US President offering a large continuation of Bidenomics is a consequential one, not just for American voters but for the world. The US election candidates hold strongly diverging opinions on international engagement — on Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, climate change, and on the ways and means of US protectionism — which are apt to influence the rest of the world’s relations with the US. On trade, Mr Trump has suggested universal, minimum, 10% tariffs on imports, while Kamala Harris has promised tariffs targeted at geopolitical rivals. Mr Trump holds an alternate view on decarbonisation compared with Ms Harris’s ambitious climate change plan. The candidates also differ in their approach to the private sector: Ms Harris proposes 7 and 6 percentage-point hikes in corporate tax and corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) respectively, going after the profits of large US corporations, while Mr Trump aims to benefit the private sector with further deregulation and cuts to corporate tax. The choice made by US voters may thus impact US investment incentives. A future President Harris might face obstacles to her freedom to act: FiveThirtyEight polls indicate a Republican flipping of the Senate, with 19 Republican, 4 independent and 11 Democrat seats up for re-election, which alternatively would allow a future President Trump more freedom to implement his policy agenda.
The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, not necessarily those of LSEG.
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