… asset and wealth managers around the globe are publishing their investment outlooks for the year ahead. But how serious should investors take these outlooks when thinking about the asset allocation of their own portfolios? Especially as the results from the different outlooks may differ widely. That said, it is good that the outlooks differ, since this means that different economists are not expecting the same market movements across the board. In addition, it might be good to read contrarian views which may challenge expectations and lead to new assumptions for the year ahead.
When it comes to this, the question of how serious investors should take economic outlooks for the year ahead is hard to answer since these outlooks are the opinions of the respective authors, which may or may not materialize in the future. Nevertheless, most investment outlooks are more than an educated guess, since they contain (detailed) scenario analyses which are derived from the most recent economic data and trends. This means these outlooks also have a value for investors who expect the same scenario as the respective author of the outlook.
That said, investors who want to build an asset allocation strategy for the year ahead based on an economic outlook need to bear in mind that the respective author may change their outlook and asset allocation view over the course of the year as the economic outlook gets readjusted over time and/or as an unforeseen economic/(geo) political event happens. In addition, investors need also to bear in mind that the outlook might simply be wrong, since the economic situation can take a direction which hasn’t been considered in the underlying scenario for the outlook. Therefore, investors need to follow the respective author to see if there are any updates to the proposed views and act accordingly.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The views expressed are the views of the author, not necessarily those of LSEG Lipper or LSEG.
Monday Morning Memo: At This Time of the Year …
by Detlef Glow.
… asset and wealth managers around the globe are publishing their investment outlooks for the year ahead. But how serious should investors take these outlooks when thinking about the asset allocation of their own portfolios? Especially as the results from the different outlooks may differ widely. That said, it is good that the outlooks differ, since this means that different economists are not expecting the same market movements across the board. In addition, it might be good to read contrarian views which may challenge expectations and lead to new assumptions for the year ahead.
When it comes to this, the question of how serious investors should take economic outlooks for the year ahead is hard to answer since these outlooks are the opinions of the respective authors, which may or may not materialize in the future. Nevertheless, most investment outlooks are more than an educated guess, since they contain (detailed) scenario analyses which are derived from the most recent economic data and trends. This means these outlooks also have a value for investors who expect the same scenario as the respective author of the outlook.
That said, investors who want to build an asset allocation strategy for the year ahead based on an economic outlook need to bear in mind that the respective author may change their outlook and asset allocation view over the course of the year as the economic outlook gets readjusted over time and/or as an unforeseen economic/(geo) political event happens. In addition, investors need also to bear in mind that the outlook might simply be wrong, since the economic situation can take a direction which hasn’t been considered in the underlying scenario for the outlook. Therefore, investors need to follow the respective author to see if there are any updates to the proposed views and act accordingly.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The views expressed are the views of the author, not necessarily those of LSEG Lipper or LSEG.
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