Historically, Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after the Black Friday weekend. Cyber Monday discounts tend to be an extension of Black Friday deals for shoppers returning to the office after a holiday weekend, eyeing merchandise online. Like Black Friday this year, Cyber Monday deals are starting earlier in the hopes that shoppers will respond over the weekend. This comes at the heels of third-quarter earnings releases where retailers are providing cautious guidance and are warning of a price-sensitive consumer. So, will the promotions be enough to entice shoppers to open their wallets? LSEG holiday sales forecast Spending for the

The latest December U.S. retail sales surprised observers as the headline index shows sales were weaker than already-weak expectations for December. U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% month over month in December, bringing the year to an end on a weak note. On a month-over-month basis, many categories struggled across the board. Shoppers spent less on vehicles, gasoline and furniture. However, on a year-over year basis, the non-store retailers and food services & drinking categories saw a whopping 13.7% and 12.1% growth, respectively. Thus, on a year-over-year basis, it’s clear that shoppers continue to spend more eating out, and when buying

To date, 179 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2022, representing 88% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 70% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 29% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 3.8%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.2% for Q3 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 66% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’

Last year, retailers faced many supply chain issues. Their inventory was constrained at the same time as consumers unleased strong pent-up demand. As a result, retailers had a unique but powerful opportunity to pull back on aggressive discounting, so they entered 2022 with lower promotional levels than in the previous year. However, as inflation reached a 40 year-high, retailers were dealing with weak consumer demand and high inventory levels in the first half of 2022. This has forced retailers to become more promotional to get rid of excess inventory. Now, 40% of the online merchandise for U.S. retailers is on

Due to inflation, several retailers are already dealing with higher cost of goods and services (COGS) – and dealing with the supply chain crisis. They just finished reporting Q3 earnings; 141 retailers have already discussed inflation worries, and 192 have mentioned the supply issues during their earnings calls. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose again, with the median cost of living increase for next year pushing up from 5.7% to 6.0%. This increase is twice the pace of expectations for income growth, which slid to 2.8% from 3.0%, according to the New York Federal Reserve. As a result, the latest Ipsos

Ninety one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2020 EPS. Of the 187 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 90% have reported earnings above analyst expectations and 10% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -6.8%. The Q3 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 5.0%. Seventy-nine percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 21% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Black Friday/Cyber Monday results U.S. consumers are saying that the online shopping trend looks permanent, Refinitiv

COVID-19 has changed the travel industry drastically this year. Although the TSA has reported an increase in travelers since March, passenger levels are significant below previous years. This year, U.S. consumers are very much concerned about COVID-19 and the bulk of them will be staying home for Thanksgiving, Refinitiv discovered in a survey collaboration with Maru/Blue Public Opinion, a panel and data service insight firm. The survey revealed that 78% of U.S. consumers will be staying in their residences this Thanksgiving. Of those, 60% will stay at home with a loved one, or people they live with, specifically due to

COVID-19 has changed the in-store shopping experience in 2020, including the holiday season. Black Friday (Nov. 27 this year) – the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday – has traditionally been one of the most critical retail sales days. It can even make or break fourth quarter profits. Supposedly, it turns red ink into black on the ledgers, thus the name. This year, however, consumers are gravitating online for safe, contactless, fast and efficient shopping. Retailers also started offering earlier-than-usual discounts to attract shoppers, manage demand and supply chains. This was reflected in the October retail sales results, which

Ninety one percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2019 EPS. Of the 190 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 68% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 6% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 26% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2019 blended earnings growth estimate is 4.0%.  The Q3 2019 blended revenue growth estimate is 5.6%. Fifty four percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations and 46% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Black Friday / Cyber Monday Consumers opened

Black Friday – the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday — is one of the most critical retail sales days during the holiday season, and for some it can make or break their fourth quarter profits. Supposedly, it turns red ink into black on the ledgers. Retailers have also been investing heavily in the omnichannel experience, giving consumers a seamless shopping experience by interconnecting physical and digital. As a result, Refinitiv partnered with StyleSage Co., which analyzes retailers, brands, online trends and products across the globe to track the average discount percentage and how much of retail assortment is on

U.S. consumers went out on Thursday, Nov. 22 — Thanksgiving evening — to shop for Black Friday deals, but it was not the same as previous years. A decade ago, shoppers rushed to the malls for doorbuster deals, and felt a sense of urgency to take advantage of the timely promotions before they disappeared. Today, however, online deals have stolen a lot of that sense of urgency. Walmart, for example, started offering online holiday deals in the beginning of November. As a result, shoppers indicated that they now go to Black Friday because of tradition, and for the experience to

Black Friday – the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (which is Thursday, Nov. 22 this year) — is one of the most critical retail sales days during the holiday season. For some, such as JC Penney, it can make or break their fourth quarter profits. Supposedly, it turns red ink into black on the ledgers, thus the name. Here are some highlights as we head into this year’s Black Friday season: Retailers having been citing strong consumer confidence all year long, and are aware that more shoppers feel better about holiday spending this year. As a result, there has