Bond or fixed income investors talk a lot about yield curves, but what is a yield curve and how can it be used in portfolio management? Generally speaking, a yield curve is a graphical representation (as shown in graph 1) of the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and the maturity dates of debt securities, such as government bonds. It shows how much investors can expect to earn from bonds of varying durations, typically ranging from short-term (e.g., one month) to long-term (e.g., 30 years). The curve is usually plotted with time to maturity on the x-axis and yield on

Bond investors often talk about duration and maturity of bonds when evaluating a single bond or a bond portfolio. Generally speaking, duration and maturity are two key concepts in bond investing which refer to different aspects of a bond’s timeline and sensitivity to interest rate changes. With regard to this, it is worthwhile to look more closely at these two measures.   Duration The duration is a measure for the sensitivity of a bond (portfolio) to interest rate changes. It represents the weighted average time it takes for an investor to receive all the cash flows (interest payments and principal

In the fixed income world investors often talk about “the spread” as one possible driver of returns. But what is “the spread” and why does it exist? Generally speaking, the spread in interest rates which is also called “credit spread” refers to the difference between two interest rates, often between a benchmark rate (normally the interest rate of government bonds) and a specific interest rate on another type of bond (such as corporate bonds). For example, if a 10-year government bond has a 3% interest rate and a corporate bond of similar duration has a 5% interest rate, the spread

Within the current macroeconomic environment where central banks around globe have started to lower interest rates, bond funds and ETFs have become popular investment choices for all kinds of investors. However, their performance is influenced by a variety of risk and return factors that investors need to understand. The first to mention is obviously the interest rate risk. Every investor should bear in mind that bond prices and interest rates move inversely, meaning rising rates can lead to losses, while falling rates increase bond values. A measure to determine the degree of a bond fund’s sensitivity to interest rate changes

The current market debate on interest rates has tended to focus only on the money rate of interest, and hence on when the Federal Reserve might start to cut short term rates. The idea is that a cut in rates will make money cheaper and therefore boost equities. Over the last three months, although the five year government benchmark has remained pretty stable, shifting from 4.4% to 4.3%, the five year BBB rate has fallen from 6.2% to 5.7%. This is part of the reason why US equities have outperformed, with the Nasdaq composite index returning 12% in the last

The bond market remains confused about interest rates, which is why it continues to generate such unusual levels of volatility. One possible explanation for this ongoing uncertainty is that there is a fundamental difference of opinion between bond traders who have only experienced abnormal bond market conditions since 2008, and those who are, let’s say, long in the tooth. During the first half of 2023, the US 10 year nominal bond yield averaged just 3.63%, with the 30 year benchmark at 3.78%. The market appeared to be indicating that inflation would quickly fall back to 2% and that nominal demand

Using the Lipper Leaders scoring system to analyse the best-performing funds in the IA Sterling Corporate Bond sector   Bonds, as we’ve been repeatedly told this year, are back. But are they worth backing? Bonds have been the asset class of choice for the year. UK investors have put £10.3bn into bond funds in the first six months of 2023. In contrast, equity funds have suffered £8.3bn of redemptions. While the value of bond principals has been hit hard as base rates have risen, this same process has, by definition, increased yields in outstanding bonds and forced new issuers to

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell throughout 2023 has been hawkish on inflation and the need to increase and maintain higher levels of interest rates. The market reaction during the first half of 2023 was that this would trigger a recession, given the view that higher interest rates are not sustainable and will result in an increase in defaults and a subsequent fall in interest rates. This narrative of lower future interest rate levels appears to have been influenced by recency bias and the idea that interest rates need to return to lower levels in order to sustain the economy. This

  Fixed income funds realized a return of positive 0.23% on average during the second quarter of 2023, marking the third straight positive quarterly performance. The last time fixed income funds registered three straight quarters of positive performance was from Q2 2020 to Q4 2020. Of the 51 Lipper fixed income classifications, only 23 ended the second quarter with gains—down from 50 last quarter. Flexible Income Funds, Specialty Fixed Income Funds, Emerging Markets Hard Currency Debt Funds, and Ultra-Short Obligation Funds were the only Lipper classifications to outperform their first quarter returns. Summary: Taxable bond funds (+0.28%) outperformed tax-exempt bond

Investors often fail to distinguish between uncertainty and risk. This is partly because there is an army of strategists advising investors how to manage risk through market narratives. These narratives attempt to explain away the complexity of the world we live in, giving the impression that uncertainty can be managed. Although listening to stories is fun and can make us feel confident about the future, investors need to embrace uncertainty to generate robust returns rather than listening to those who attempt to explain it away. A perfect example of this has been the liability driven investment (LDI) approach taken by

The US equity market has had a surprising rebound this summer; rallying more than 17% between mid-June to mid-August. The narrative for the first half of the year had been focused on a pending recession, given that a sustained decline in economic output tends to correspond to falling capital values. This narrative has been supported by two quarters of negative real GDP growth, which was inevitable given how high inflation had risen. Despite the fall in real GDP, the growth in nominal wages and nominal output remains robust while inflation finally appears to be falling, as indicated in Exhibit 1.

Using the Lipper Leaders scoring system to analyse the best performing funds in the IA Global Emerging Bond—Local Currency sector.   Emerging market debt funds come in many flavours, with one of the principal distinctions being between hard currency (HC) and local currency (LC) offerings. HC bonds are dollar-denominated. This article focuses on funds investing in emerging market debt denominated in the currencies of their issuers. While HC bonds offer a mix of government and corporate issuance, with a broad range of sector exposures with the latter, LC is almost entirely government debt. What’s more, there’s less to chose from