U.S. December retail sales came in stronger than expected. Retail and food services were up 0.6% month-over-month, and the ex-autos category up 0.4% m/m, suggesting that retailers had a jolly holiday season. Two categories that stood out in December were clothing & clothing accessories stores, where sales were up 1.5% m/m, and department stores, which saw a 3.0% m/m growth. (Exhibit 1) Coincidentally, both these sectors had the most amount of merchandise on sale, and highest discounts during the holiday season. Thus, although consumers have proved to be resilient in 2023, they are also very much value oriented. They have

Due to inflation, several retailers are already dealing with higher cost of goods and services (COGS) – and dealing with the supply chain crisis. They just finished reporting Q3 earnings; 141 retailers have already discussed inflation worries, and 192 have mentioned the supply issues during their earnings calls. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose again, with the median cost of living increase for next year pushing up from 5.7% to 6.0%. This increase is twice the pace of expectations for income growth, which slid to 2.8% from 3.0%, according to the New York Federal Reserve. As a result, the latest Ipsos

One of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic has been a shift to consumers “nesting” at home. Consumers were asked to stay at home and became teachers, fixed their homes, ordered takeout, took online workouts, cooking and DIY lessons. This has substantially accelerated the pace and shift to online shopping, which became evident when retailers reported strong digital sales in Q1 2020. Looking forward to anticipated Q2 performance, we used StarMine’s SmartEstimate to determine which companies in the Refinitiv Retail and Restaurant Index are better poised to continue beating earnings estimates. The results tell us that there is a nesting

Sixty seven percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q1 2020 EPS. Of the 143 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 59% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 2% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 39% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q1 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is 33.4%. The Q1 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 0.9%. Fifty seven percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations and 43% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Retail earnings this week As concerns of

“Last month’s decline has stabilized as the shutdown has faded into the rearview,” reports Chris Jackson, Vice President at survey research firm Ipsos. “This month we saw mostly steady readings with some increased optimism toward the job market. We will need to monitor this trend in next month’s PCSI to see if the effects of last week’s disappointing jobs report negatively impacts the public.” Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Refinitiv, said, “The retail earnings forecast for 2019 is lower than the 2018 results, which is in line with the Expectations Sentiment Index. This means that both consumer and

American consumer confidence, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index, sees a moderate 1.4 point drop in December, 2018. Three of four sub indices see noticeable drops while the Jobs Index reports solid growth. The Investment and Current Indices saw the largest drops of 3.2 points and 3.0 points, respectively. Despite these strong drops, the Jobs Index reports 1.3 points of growth. “Last month showed consumers in a state of cautious optimism. They believed the future was going to improve, but didn’t quite want to plan for it,” reports Chris Jackson, Vice President at survey research firm

In the U.S. retail landscape, the strength seen in consumer spending continued into the second half of 2018. In fact, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are becoming more bullish on consumer spending as retailers get ready to report their earnings for Q3 2018. The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index is now looking at a 3.6% Q3 2018 growth, up from the 1.7% SSS result posted in Q3 2017. All sectors are expected to post stronger comps this time around. The discount group is one of the strongest with a 4.0% SSS estimate, on top of a robust 3.1% comparison

American consumer confidence, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index, is relatively steady this October. This month, the PCSI stands at 62.5, a 0.3 point decrease from last month. “Last month the Jobs Index reached an apex, but the other sub-indices indicated that consumers didn’t see much of a path forward for continued job market improvements,” reports Chirs Jackson, Vice President at survey research firm Ipsos. Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Refinitiv, said, ‘Likewise, the Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index estimate remains steady with a robust 3.6% growth for the third quarter. This bodes

This August, American consumer confidence, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index, ticked up by 0.9 points to 62.7. All four sub-indices considered in the Primary Index also saw an increase this month. The Investment Index saw the greatest increase, up 1.5 points. The Current Index saw a similar increase of 1.1 points. “This month’s consumer confidence measurement is the first since tariffs took effect on China as of July 6th,” reported Chris Jackson, VP at survey research firm Ipsos. “We’ve seen slight increases across the board in our indices so it appears consumers are relatively unfazed

American consumer confidence, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment, goes into March 2018 holding steady from the previously upward trend, standing pat at 63.1. Last month’s measure set a new post-Recession high and March will tie that mark. The stay in the index this month appears to derive from counterbalancing opinions on the current and future state of the economy. Consumer confidence in the current economy and in their current financial situation increased, but these increases were offset by decreases in confidence in the future economy and in future financial situations. To download the full report, click

American consumer confidence as measured by the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment goes into February 2018 continuing its forward progress to stand at 63.1. This is up a point and a half from last month and marks a new post-recession high. Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Thomson Reuters, said, “Consumer confidence has a big impact on spending. The recent improvement is also reflected in The Thomson Reuters Retail and Restaurant earnings index, which has experienced a significant upward revision. The index is expected to grow 7.6% for the current quarter, up from 5.4% last month.” To download the full report, click

The all-important holiday season for U.S. retailers mimicked Goldilocks – not too hot, hot too cold. The Same Store Sales Index is looking at a 1.8% growth estimate for Q4 2017. While that’s stronger than last year’s 0.8% SSS result, it’s still below the 3% healthy mark, suggesting spending was modest. Let’s dig in and find out where consumers went shopping and dining: The consumer confidence index suggests consumers are feeling good about their economic situation – and spending their discretionary income. The average holiday discount wasn’t much different that the average discount offered in previous months. However, what did