Fathom’s US Economic Sentiment Indicator dipped from 5.9% to 5.6% in July. June’s ESI reading has been revised up, following benchmark US GDP revisions and updated survey data. The bigger picture is that while many businesses have expressed concern about trade wars, and sentiment weakened a little in both June and July, it is still high by past standards. With tax reform encouraging more investment and consumer demand strong — reflected by solid durable goods orders and retail sales prints for July — the outlook for GDP remains positive. We have argued for some time that GDP growth and our

Earnings could indicate that the Atlanta Falcons (NFC) are favored over the New England Patriots (AFC) in Super Bowl LI. Earnings season was hit by a rush of 109 16Q4 results from S&P 500 companies to cross the 50 yard line and end the week with 55% of the index reported. The Information Technology sector helped drive Y/Y 16Q4 earnings 1.2 percentage points (ppt) higher to 8.0%, which puts the quarter on target to be the largest gain since the 10.3% growth in 14Q3. While 16Q4 earnings are stronger than expected, the S&P 500’s 7.4% gain since the election has 2017 earnings in focus.