This year alone, retailers have discussed Chinese tariffs in 166 earnings calls, and that might just be the beginning. The Chinese government announced its retaliation on Aug. 23, saying tariffs will be imposed on American goods, including apparel, textiles, agriculture and chemicals. This announcement is weighing on retail stocks globally and continues to fuel a trade war between China and the U.S. And now tariffs are having a deep effect on both countries. Retailers Booming in China The retailers reporting Q2 earnings this month have been vocal about their popularity in China. Walmart said during its Q2 earnings call that

U.S. retailers that offer value and convenience continue to outperform — and gain market share. Additionally, they have the wherewithal to do better during a trade war. Walmart and Target smashed Q2 earnings expectations and are showing strong defensive qualities. Given their wide range of brand categories and robust supply/vendor relationship, they are less vulnerable to a trade war. These discounters have the resources and flexibility to make the necessary adjustments to their supply chain more rapidly than their peers do. Exhibit 1: Q2 2019 Same Store Sales Actuals and Estimates for Tariff-Proof Retailers Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Omnichannel

Jharonne Martis, director of consumer research at Refinitiv, Brian Nagel, senior equity research analyst for retail at Oppenheimer, and Joe Lavorgna, chief economist of the Americas at Natixis, join “Squawk Box” to discuss what the latest slew of retail earnings can tell investors about the health of the consumer.

Retail analysts polled by Refinitiv are cautious about Q2 earnings expectations, especially since many retailers lowered their earnings guidance for Q2. The Q2 2019 retail blended earnings growth estimate is 1.8% — a sharp contrast with Q1 2019, which saw an 8.3% growth in retail earnings. Let’s dig in and look at the major factors: The latest reading of American consumer confidence, as measured by the Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index suggests consumers still have some ongoing concerns surrounding job security and possible repercussions on local economies. Most U.S. retailers are concerned about the higher costs associated with tariffs imposed

Not a trade war but ‘tradepolitik’ is the new normal state of relations between the US and China, Mexico and others — with threats of restrictive trade practices and implementations of those threats waxing and waning like the phases of the moon. That new normal is weighing down on sentiment, as illustrated by the manufacturing PMIs in the chart below. It is starting to dampen growth in the global economy too — but probably not by enough to tip the world into recession. Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream The impact we have seen to date is

Jason Castelluccio, SVP/Client Portfolio Manager at Nuveen, talks about multiple factors impacting the U.S. financial market in 2019, including the trade war with China, intellectual property concerns, issues with North Korea, Brexit and the Federal Reserve. Lipper Fund Award winners have excelled in providing consistently strong risk-adjusted performance relative to their peers. The merit of the winners is based on entirely objective, quantitative criteria. This coupled with the unmatched depth of fund data, results in a unique level of prestige and ensures the award has lasting value. For a full list of USA Lipper Fund Award 2019 winners, click here.

As the S&P 500’s 19Q1 earnings season enters the final stretch, Broadcom Inc (AVGO.OQ) delivered a heavy blow to the Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry when they reported revenue below expectations and provided a cautionary warning related to U.S. China trade and OEM inventory levels. Nearly all of the S&P 500 companies (496) have reported 19Q1 earnings and roughly three quarters (75.6%) have beat expectations. As a result, first quarter earnings are now expected to increase 1.6%. This is an improvement from the expected two percent decline and earnings recession that was expected at the beginning of the of earnings

The trade war viewed in the media sentiment about the Chinese currency. Note how sentiment about the Yuan and the exchange rate rises when Trump is friendly with China and drops when he tweets intent to implement tariffs.

US President Donald Trump has again postponed a further increase in tariffs levied on China, with the aim of agreeing a more lasting truce at a summit in March. Precise details of the circumstances that led to the postponement are as yet unclear, but reports suggest that China has promised to import more agricultural goods from the US, and to eschew competitive devaluations. In response to this, we took a reading of Fathom’s China Exposure Index (CEI), which tracks the equity performance of US companies with high exposure to China. It is constructed using a selection of 25 US-listed corporations

With Donald Trump’s trade war, the role of media in driving market prices has become explicit. Below is an image of the CNY/USD exchange rate with two sentiment moving averages superimposed.  From 2017 to April 2018, media reports on the Chinese Yuan trended more positive, and the green shading between the two moving averages represents that trend.  However, in April 2018 Trump began to beat the trade war drums about implementing tariffs.  Initially these reports were seen as a bluff, but within two months it became clear they were not, and sentiment collapsed, following by the exchange rate.  An image of

Asian bourses rallied on Monday, following a truce in the Sino–US trade war. In return for a three-month delay to a scheduled increase in US tariff rates, China is expected immediately to increase its imports from the US, and to step up negotiations about other concerns such as forced technology transfers and cyber espionage. China’s Shanghai A share index rose 2.5%, while indices in neighbouring economies that are dependent on the Middle Kingdom, including Vietnam and Taiwan, also experienced significant gains. The positive sentiment could be detected stateside. Immediately after opening, the S&P 500 was trading 1.3% higher. The more

US economic sentiment deteriorated slightly in October, according to Fathom’s US Economic Sentiment Index (US ESI), which dipped from 6.3% to 6.0%. Uncertainty ahead of the midterm elections and fears about the effects of the ongoing Sino-US trade war are possible explanations. Nearly three-quarters of the constituent series posted lower readings than in the previous month and there was a divergence between business and consumer surveys: 12 out of 14 measures of business confidence decreased, compared with 5 out of the 9 measures of consumer confidence. The breakdown highlights that the slowdown in overall sentiment was driven by businesses. As