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November 3, 2014

Chart Of The Week: Introducing Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator

by Fathom Consulting.

Before he became Premier, it was leaked that Li Keqiang had said he had little faith in China’s official GDP figures. Using the three alternative indicators he suggested, we have constructed our own China Momentum Indicator(CMI). It does not look good for China’s growth prospects.

China momentum

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Before he became Premier, it was leaked that Li Keqiang had said he had little faith in China’s official GDP figures. He preferred instead to look at electricity consumption, at rail freight volumes and at credit growth. At Fathom, we have constructed our own China Momentum Indicator (CMI), using these variables, and estimating the appropriate weights and seasonal factors. As our chart shows, the CMI has on occasion led the official statistics, while at other times it has been coincident.

The three ‘easy to measure’ indicators favoured by Premier Li Keqiang have slowed significantly. Consequently the CMI lies someway south of the official statistics. It suggests that growth may be heading towards 5% – midway between the central and risk scenarios in our latest quarterly forecast. Indeed, depending on one’s faith in the official GDP statistics, it may already be there.

The China Momentum Indicator is part of Fathom’s proprietary suite of indicators. It is available via Thomson Reuters Datastream and Eikon.

 
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