With the official GDP data showing growth of 7.2% in 2017, Ireland’s economy remains one of the euro area’s best performing. Even after stripping out the factors distorting the official numbers, Fathom’s proprietary Measure of Irish National Income (MINI) indicates that the real economy expanded by an impressive 4.1% last year, making it the fifth fastest growing euro area economy behind the likes of Malta and Slovenia. However, the tendency for the official measure to overstate the size of Ireland’s economy may have significant implications for policymakers. Indeed, while official statistics show that Ireland’s government debt-to-GDP ratio is close to 70%, calculations based upon the MINI suggest it may be nearer 110%.
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