July 27, 2020

StarMine Models Pick North American Companies for 20Q2 Earnings Misses

by David Aurelio.

The StarMine team has selected five North American companies, using Eikon Screener by Refinitiv, that we expect to miss 20Q2 earnings estimates, based on StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data from Refinitiv.

All of our North American selections for 2020 Q1 negative Predicted Surprises were 80% accurate, which can be viewed here. Historically (since 2011 Q4), our negative Predicted Surprise picks have demonstrated an accuracy rate of about 65.9%, giving investors an edge ahead of earnings announcements.

StarMine SmartEstimates® help you better predict future earnings and analyst revisions with estimates that place more weight on recent forecasts by top-rated analysts. SmartEstimates® are created in two steps. First, we exclude stale estimates, then weight the remaining estimates based on each analyst’s track record and the date of the estimate.

A StarMine Predictive Surprise compares the SmartEstimate® to the I/B/E/S consensus. When the earnings Predicted Surprise % is +/-2% or more, our research shows that you can anticipate the direction of earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of over 70%. Revenue Predicted Surprises are even more predictive, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%.

Our North American picks for negative Predicted Surprises in 2020 Q2 are — Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN.O), Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (PK.N), Carnival Corp (CCL.N), Marriott International Inc (MAR.O), and Boeing Co (BA.N).

Negative surprise predictions

Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.

Each week the StarMine Earnings Surprise Forecast is published as part of the This Week in Earnings report. The forecast shows the S&P 500 companies with significant positive and negative Predicted Surprises expected to report over the next two weeks. Don’t be surprised when your holdings show up in This Week in Earnings, learn how to use Eikon from Refinitiv’s Screener app to see these companies ahead of publication here.

Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise along with the Earnings Season Report App within Eikon from Refinitiv to follow earnings season? Find out more in this article “Are We Heading into an Earnings Recession?

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