Our Privacy Statment & Cookie Policy
All LSEG websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.
The wedge between emerging market and US GDP growth is forecast to be its narrowest since 1999 this year, as the US enjoys a strong vaccine- and stimulus-led recovery (until earlier this month, the IMF had been forecasting that US GDP growth would outstrip that of emerging markets this year). The economic theory of convergence would suggest that GDP per capita will tend to grow faster in poorer countries than richer ones, but this has often not been borne out by the data. Perhaps aided by the rise of China, emerging economies did start to grow strongly from the turn of the millennium, with over 180 countries converging on the US in 2007 and 2008. But the number of countries converging fell steadily following the Global Financial Crisis. By 2016, only around half of the world’s countries were still narrowing the GDP per capita gap with the US. Covid-19 has proved to be another blow to economic convergence, with medium-term economic effects from the pandemic likely to be heavily related to a country’s ability to borrow, and to vaccine rollouts — two areas where the advanced economies, and the US in particular, hold large advantages.
Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream
Join a growing community of asset managers and stay up to date with the latest research from Refinitiv and partners to help you inform your investment decisions. Follow our Asset Management LinkedIn showcase page.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop view points on the market.
Refinitiv offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals. Find out more.
The latest UK headline inflation figure surprised on the downside, coming out at 2.0% in ...
Sir Keir Starmer’s newly elected Labour government is trying to address the UK’s ...
Tensions between Niger and France have increased further, with Niger revoking the French ...
U.S. retail sales for June showed unexpectedly robust performance, with overall sales ...