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Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 22Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 8.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is -2.1%.
- Of the 496 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 22Q2, 77.4% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 66.1% and prior four quarter average of 80.6%.
- During the week of Sep. 5, 2 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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22Q2 Earnings Growth Highlights
The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 22Q2 is 8.5%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to -2.1%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $475.4B in 22Q2, compared to share-weighted earnings of $438.1B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 503 constituents) in 21Q2.
Seven of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 21Q2. The energy and industrials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the communication services sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 21Q2.
The energy sector has the highest earnings growth rate (296.7%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $61.9B in 22Q2, compared to earnings of $15.6B in 21Q2. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas refining & marketing (1381.3%) and integrated oil & gas (282.9%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 167.7%.
The industrials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (31.5%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $37.6B in 22Q2, compared to earnings of $28.6B in 21Q2. Sixteen of the 17 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The airlines (188.6%) and trading companies & distributors (52.6%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 7.6%.
The communication services sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-20.3%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $39.1B in 22Q2, compared to earnings of $49.1B in 21Q2. Seven of the ten sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The wireless telecommunication services (-111.5%) and movies & entertainment (-69.2%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to -14.2%.
22Q3 Earnings Growth Highlights
The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 22Q3 is 5.1%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to -1.5%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $469.9B in 22Q3, compared to share-weighted earnings of $446.9B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 503 constituents) in 21Q3.
Five of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 21Q3. The energy and industrials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the communication services sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 21Q3.
The energy sector has the highest earnings growth rate (120.3%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $53.7B in 22Q3, compared to earnings of $24.4B in 21Q3. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas refining & marketing (243.6%) and oil & gas exploration & production (129.7%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 97.1%.
The industrials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (28.0%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $38.2B in 22Q3, compared to earnings of $29.8B in 21Q3. Fifteen of the 17 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The airlines (436.8%) and agricultural & farm machinery (73.6%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 14.6%.
The communication services sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-15.8%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $39.2B in 22Q3, compared to earnings of $46.5B in 21Q3. Eight of the ten sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The alternative carriers (-26.6%) and publishing (-24.4%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to -15.7%.
Exhibit 1: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions by Sector
Exhibit 2: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions History
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