According to the Bank of England’s 2022 Q3 Credit Conditions Survey, lenders reported that the availability of secured credit (mortgages) to households declined in the June-August period. Moreover, the net balance of banks and building societies expecting to tighten access to secured credit over the September-November period, was at its highest since 1Q 2008, when the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) was brewing. Ominously, the survey was taken before the ill-fated fiscal statement by then Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, which fuelled soaring mortgage rates and was followed by a rapid withdrawal of mortgage deals by providers. With the UK entering recession, and with real wages already falling, the outlook is looking increasingly bleak for house prices. We expect a decline of around 20%, close to what we saw in the GFC.
Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream
The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, not necessarily those of Refinitiv Lipper or LSEG.
Join a growing community of asset managers and stay up to date with the latest research from Refinitiv and partners to help you inform your investment decisions. Follow our Asset Management LinkedIn showcase page.
_________________________________________________________________
Refinitiv Datastream
Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop view points on the market.
Refinitiv offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals. Find out more.
