Most global markets and regions this report tracks declined during the month of April. Despite the market sell-off, most StarMine models showed good performance results across nearly every region. To generalize, except in Emerging Markets and Canada, value remained in favor, edging out momentum factors in performance, but not by much, and therefore the StarMine combo models performed well in nearly every region this report tracks. An exception, similar to last month, was found only in Canada. Like last month, quality was well rewarded in most major regions except Canada and Japan. Also, like last month, high-beta growth stocks were strongly out of favor in all regions except Develop Asia ex-Japan, and to a degree that we had to reset our axis scale in the U.S. (see our “What Worked” section).
The StarMine Relative Valuation (RV) and Intrinsic Valuation (IV) models showed positive top/bottom decile spreads and I.C.s across regions except Canada. The StarMine Price Momentum (Price Mo) model also performed reasonably well in every major region and most countries and was strongest in the Emerging Markets region. The StarMine Analyst Revisions Model (ARM) did well in several major regions, but exceptions were found in Canada, Japan and Developed Asia ex-Japan. ARM had a decile spread of 5.5% among Emerging Market stocks, where it demonstrated the strongest performance. The MarketPsych Media Sentiment (MMS) model generated negative I.C.s across all major regions.
The StarMine Smart Holdings model generated good results in every market except Japan. In the U.S., the other two U.S.-only “Smart Money” models (Insider Filings and Short Interest), produced opposite results, with Short Interest being one of the better performing models in that region, and Insider Filings generating a negative spread and low I.C.
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