To date, 177 of the 197 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2025, representing 90% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 23% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 6.8%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 197 companies in this index is 4.5% for Q2 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 72% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 28% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
As predicted by StarMine, Urban Outfitters delivered a record-breaking Q2, with earnings surpassing analyst expectations. The retailer also beat revenue and same-store sales (SSS) estimates, with total revenue rising 11.3% year-over-year to $1.5 billion. SSS increased by 5.6%, led by strong performances from Free People (+6.7%), Anthropologie (+5.7%), and Urban Outfitters (+4.2%). Subscription revenue surged 53.2%, reflecting continued growth in Nuuly’s active subscriber base for clothing rental. Urban Outfitters has a loyal customer base, and it’s broad-based strength across brands and channels underscores its ability to capture demand through both digital and physical retail, even amid macroeconomic headwinds.
The company also addressed the impact of tariffs in its earnings call, stating: “Our teams continue to work on mitigation strategies including negotiating better terms with our vendors, diversifying our countries of origin, changing our mode of transportation from air to ocean, and strategically adjusting pricing to minimize the impact on our customers. Although tariffs present a temporary challenge to our business, we are confident in our ability to manage through this environment and still achieve approximately 100 basis points of gross margin improvement for the full fiscal year 2026. I want to stress that this plan is based on what we know today.” (Source: URBN Q2 2026 Earnings Call)
Dollar General reported solid Q2 results, with revenue rising 5.1% to $10.7 billion and earnings and SSS exceeding expectations. The discounter posted a 2.8% increase in SSS, supported by balanced growth in customer traffic and basket size. Gross margin improved, largely due to reduced shrink and better inventory management. EPS grew 9.4% year-over-year to $1.86. Dollar General continues to expand its footprint, completing over 1,300 store remodels and opening 204 new stores, including four in Mexico. Despite some pricing pressure from tariffs, the retailer raised its full-year guidance and emphasized its focus on value and digital expansion, including partnerships with DoorDash and Uber Eats.
Dick’s Sporting Goods posted robust Q2 results, exceeding expectations for earnings, revenue, and SSS. The retailer reported a 5.0% increase in SSS, with revenue reaching $3.65 billion and EPS coming in at $4.38. The company raised its full-year guidance for both earnings and comp sales. Growth was driven by increases in both average ticket and transaction volume, along with margin expansion. Dick’s also highlighted its strategic store expansion, including new House of Sport and Field House locations, and reaffirmed confidence in its long-term strategies. While current guidance includes the impact of existing tariffs, it excludes potential effects from the upcoming Foot Locker acquisition, expected to close in September.
Here are the latest Q2 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q2 2025
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
