With a late Thanksgiving this year, retailers rolled out the discounts earlier than usual in November and consumers started holiday shopping. However, people still feel a sense of cautiousness about spending and Black Friday sales were down.
The Same Store Sales Index is expected to show a gain of 2.7% overall and 2.4% excluding the drug store sector. The overall number compares well to the anemic gain of 0.5% in November 2012, but the ex-drug figure is well below last year’s increase of 5.1%. A gain of 3% indicates a healthy retail economy.
Anecdotally, Black Friday saw a decrease in mall traffic. There was a noticeable difference in the ease and speed of parking at Roosevelt Field Mall and Westbury Plaza in Long Island, New York, compared to last year. Although consumers were buying presents earlier, most also indicated that they expect retailers to offer juicier promotions later in the holiday season. As a result, many are waiting to finalize their shopping list.
On Dec. 1, the National Retail Federation estimated Americans had spent 2.9 percent less over the weekend than last year. Looking ahead, the Quarterly Same Store Sales Index, which consists of 75 retailers, is expected to post 1.7% growth for Q4 (vs. 1.6% in Q4 2012).
Among individual retailers, Costco has the highest SSS estimate for November at 3.5% vs. 6.0% for November 2012. American Apparel is facing the most difficult year-ago SSS comparison in the retail universe at 12.0%, followed by Stein Mart at 7.1% comp from November 2012. On the flip side, L Brands has the weakest SSS estimate at -1.1%. The last time L Brands posted a negative SSS was during the past recession when it reported a decline of 2.0% SSS in December 2009.
Sector breakdown
The Discount sector has a 3.2% SSS estimate, below the 5.7% pace set in November 2012. Costco has the strongest comp estimate in the group, at 3.3%, below its 6.0% November 2012 result. Excluding the impact of gasoline sales, the Costco SSS figure increases to 4.5%. Meanwhile, Fred’s has a 1.3% SSS estimate vs. the -3.6% posted in November 2012.
The Apparel sector as a whole is expected to report a 0.2% increase in SSS, compared to the 3.6% advance recorded in November 2012. Excluding Gap, one of the heaviest-weighted components in the sector, the Apparel group is set to decrease to -0.5%, below the 4.3% result posted in November 2012. Stein Mart has the strongest estimate in this group at 2.5% SSS estimate. Meanwhile, Gap Inc. is facing a 3.0% sales comparison from 2012 with a 0.8% SSS estimate. Gap’s Old Navy division is expected to post the highest SSS gain at 2.2% for November 2013.
Apparel stores catering specifically to teens appear likely to be one of November’s weakest segments within the retail universe. Same store sales are expected to post a 0.8% for the sector. Zumiez is expected to lead the teen stores, with its 3.0% SSS estimate, followed by The Buckle at -0.5% vs. -0.1% comp from a year ago.
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