by Claire Cheape.
In a webinar on November 3, our partners Fathom Consulting presented their Global Economic and Markets Outlook including possible scenarios for global trade and the impact on GDP.
(opinions below are those of Fathom Consulting)
Growth and Debt
The current low growth in developed economies is largely due to high levels of debt. As the initial debt built up, growth was accelerated, but as borrowing continued the growth has since tapered off.
Inequality of Wealth
In the last 30 years, the lowest earners in developed economies have seen no increase in their income. Globalization has meant employees in the lowest percentiles of income distribution globally can compete effectively with those low earners in developed economies.
Global inequality has reduced. However, lower and middle income workers in developed economies have seen declines or static income growth, making inequality within developed economies larger, creating an apparent rise in anti-globalization sentiment.
“Isolationism would be good for Workers but a Disaster for Capitalists”
If US isolationism takes hold, Fathom predicts:
Read “News in Charts: Trump Lite or Donald Dark?” for more on how a Trump presidency would potentially affect the US economy and “Donald Dark: more than just a peso problem” for potential affects on the global economy; and watch the webinar to get more detail from the Fathom economic outlook.