Economic Outlook: The UK’s Post-Referendum Panic Short Lived but what about Sterling?

In a webinar on November 3, our partners Fathom Consulting presented their Global Economic and Markets Outlook including possible scenarios for global trade and the impact on GDP.

View a summary of Fathom’s charts and analysis and listen to the webinar recording (60 minutes).

Highlights

Fathom predicts that Sterling will fall further

Source: Datastream / Fathom Consulting

Investment intentions from the Bank of England Agent’s survey suggests that investment is likely to fall. Fathom expects this to be the case during the whole period of Brexit uncertainity, anything from 2 to 10 years. If the Canada/Europe trade agreement is used as an example, the UK could be looking at 7 years of uncertainty. Read this article in which Fathom explores the short term economic impact on the UK.

Europe’s banking crisis

Fathom have long argued that the Euro area banking sector is in poor health. Developments this year have confirmed that view. Undercapitalisation, non-performing loans, fines for misconduct and low profitability continue to dog the sector.

Source: Datastream / Fathom Consulting

With the balance sheets of euro area banks already fragile, they can ill-afford another shock, economic or otherwise. But the global financial system is highly connected, and Fathom’s analysis suggests that the euro area sits at the heart of it.

Watch the webinar and get more detail from the Fathom economic outlook.

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