Historically, Cyber Monday falls on the Monday after the Black Friday weekend. Cyber Monday discounts tend to be an extension of Black Friday deals for shoppers returning to the office after a holiday weekend, eyeing merchandise online. Like Black Friday this year, Cyber Monday deals are starting earlier in the hopes that shoppers will respond over the weekend. This comes at the heels of third-quarter earnings releases where retailers are providing cautious guidance and are warning of a price-sensitive consumer. So, will the promotions be enough to entice shoppers to open their wallets? LSEG holiday sales forecast Spending for the

To date, 177 of the 205 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q3 2023, representing 86% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 69% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 27% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q3 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 27.7%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 205 companies in this index is 4.3% for Q3 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 59% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

Black Friday deals are arriving earlier this year as U.S. consumers are still dealing with higher prices from a year ago. As a result, retailers know that shoppers have become price-sensitive and are looking for steep promotions and discounts. Therefore, retailers have ramped up the amount of merchandise on sale, hoping that more shoppers will open their wallets ahead of Black Friday. The discount penetration (how much of the assortment is on sale) rose to 42% in November. LSEG discovered this in a collaboration with Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage, which analyzes retailers, brands, online trends and products across the

To date, 159 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2022, representing 79% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 65% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 3% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2022 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at -22.0%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 5.7% for Q4 2022. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 66% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

Last year, retailers faced many supply chain issues. Their inventory was constrained at the same time as consumers unleased strong pent-up demand. As a result, retailers had a unique but powerful opportunity to pull back on aggressive discounting, so they entered 2022 with lower promotional levels than in the previous year. However, as inflation reached a 40 year-high, retailers were dealing with weak consumer demand and high inventory levels in the first half of 2022. This has forced retailers to become more promotional to get rid of excess inventory. Now, 40% of the online merchandise for U.S. retailers is on

Eighty percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q2 2021 EPS. Of the 164 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 85% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 12% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q2 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 153.9%. The Q2 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 24.3%. Eighty-four percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 16% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Q2 2021 retail earnings This earning week, retailers told us that they are well-stocked for

Today, the Wall Street Journal announced that Amazon plans to open “Large Retail Locations Akin to Department Stores” (Source: WSJ, Aug. 19, 2021). This news comes at the heels of the latest e-commerce report from the Census Bureau posting record sales of $225 billion in the second quarter of 2021. This represents a  9.1% growth from a year-ago – which is a deceleration from the 30%+ growth we’ve been seeing over the past year (Exhibit 1). The 9.1% e-commerce growth is also the smallest growth seen in over a decade. Still, the Refinitiv IFR data suggest that the amount of

Demand for the latest fashion trends is always strong in the weeks leading up to Easter, a time when retailers are still selling the season’s must-have Spring items at full price. Easter Sunday this year is April 4. The fact that consumers still appear to be willing to buy the latest fashion items now rather than waiting for a discount later, despite being mostly at home during the Covid-19 pandemic, is an encouraging sign for the retail industry. Easter is one of the largest retail buying holidays. In addition to the traditional Easter eggs and holiday-related groceries, the end of

Perhaps the biggest retail trend in 2020 was the accelerated shift Americans made to online shopping, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend will be a big contributor to the economy in 2021 as e-commerce continues to grow as a percentage of total retail sales. Note that e-commerce transactions accounted for 14.3% of retail sales as of Q3 2020, compared to 4.2% The survey also shows that the number-one holiday gift is gift cards for both Americans and Canadians. This means there will likely be a delay in purchases, and the reporting of sales/revenue until these gift cards are redeemed.

Retailers are getting ready to report Q1 2020 earnings. As they navigate through uncharted territory, many are withdrawing their earnings guidance. The coronavirus pandemic has also prolonged retail store closures all over the world. However, some U.S. states are reopening for business, including such retailers as Macy’s and Best Buy. However, consumer shopping patterns have definitely been affected by the pandemic, underlying the importance of having a solid omnichannel experience. Shoppers are gravitating to online shopping and mobile devices for deliveries and curbside pickup. Here are some highlights as we head into the first earnings season of 2020: The Refinitiv

Looking back at the decade of the “teens,” a significant number of U.S. retailers closed their doors, while others consolidated. Traditional retailers have been struggling. Spending has shifted to online retailers, local and organic businesses and groceries, and shoppers have chosen value/lower price points over brand loyalty. Millennials now make up a big portion of U.S. shoppers. Besides preferring experiences over things, millennials are also very tech focused; mobile phones are important to them, underlining the importance of e-commerce and omni-channel initiatives, a significant expense for retailers. As a result, mall traffic and sales have declined, causing margins and profits

Black Friday – the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday — is one of the most critical retail sales days during the holiday season, and for some it can make or break their fourth quarter profits. Supposedly, it turns red ink into black on the ledgers. Retailers have also been investing heavily in the omnichannel experience, giving consumers a seamless shopping experience by interconnecting physical and digital. As a result, Refinitiv partnered with StyleSage Co., which analyzes retailers, brands, online trends and products across the globe to track the average discount percentage and how much of retail assortment is on