Q2 2021 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update August 20, 2021

Eighty percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q2 2021 EPS. Of the 164 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 85% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 12% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q2 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 153.9%.

The Q2 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 24.3%. Eighty-four percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 16% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Q2 2021 retail earnings

This earning week, retailers told us that they are well-stocked for the back-to-school and Halloween season. Demand for these goods is already strong, a good omen for the December holiday season.

The department stores posted stronger revenue than their pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that business is picking up. This news comes on the heels of the Wall Street Journal announcement that Amazon plans to open “Large Retail Locations Akin to Department Stores.” For Refinitiv’s story go here: https://refini.tv/2W3TRJU

Meanwhile, Ross Stores and TJX missed their SSS estimates, but did post revenue and net income above their pre-pandemic levels as well.

Here are this week’s Q2 2021 earnings and same store sales results:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earning Results –Q2 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates