June 10, 2019

Chart of the Week: The Trump effect on global trade

by Fathom Consulting.

The ebbs and flows of President Trump’s protectionist rhetoric have had a material impact on global trade, as measured by CPB — the Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis. The volume of trade, which had been rising steadily if slowly since the global financial crisis, stalled last year. Our judgement is that this has been a consequence of uncertainty — of fear rather than fact. It would take a substantial escalation from here, involving the imposition of sizeable, trilateral tariffs between the US, China and the EU, to tip most major economies into recession.

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