Chart of the Week: Critical minerals to remain a sticking point

As part of ongoing China-US tensions, China leveraged its dominance over 17 critical minerals — restricting their global export. These minerals are essential inputs for a number of high-tech products: from batteries, optics and thermoelectric devices to semiconductors and quantum computing. Antimony, gallium and germanium had export restrictions gradually raised on them, culminating in an outright ban in December 2024. Two further rounds of export controls on 14 other materials were imposed in February and April 2025. Despite a negotiated truce, with China agreeing to lift restrictions on some as part of the deal reached in May with the US, critical minerals may prove to be a sticking point in the future that China can utilise to yield concessions. The cost of insurance and freight of antimony has risen by 166% since trade controls became effective from 15 September 2024, and bismuth by as much as 604% in May 2025 since the export control put in place on 4 February 2025. While China remains dominant in the refining — and ultimate supply — of critical minerals, the rest of the world will continue to be at the whim of China’s near-monopoly and policy. A country’s ability to develop its high-tech industries may be in-part reliant on its relations with China. Said dependence will persist until either lasting trade deals are struck; other countries develop their own refining capacity and rework supply chains; or alternate material inputs are found to be at least equally as effective, and available.

Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream

______________________________________________________________________________________