Q2 2019 Retail Scorecard – Update August 16, 2019

Seventy two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q2 2019 EPS. Of the 152 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 67% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 10% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 23% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q2 2019 blended earnings growth estimate is 2.0%.

The Q2 2019 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.9%. 59% have reported revenue above analyst expectations, 1% matched and 40% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.

Here are the Same Store Sales and Earnings estimates for retailers reporting earnings next week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Expectations/results – Week of august 19, 2019

GUIDANCE

Walmart reported another stellar quarter, and raised its earnings guidance. A bold move in a time when the bulk of retailers are providing negative guidance.  Retailers are reporting Q2 earnings and discussing China tariffs, and warning us not to expect much from them in the upcoming quarters. To date, there have been 19 negative EPS preannouncements for Q3 2019 compared to 7 positive preannouncements. Accordingly, analysts polled by Refinitiv have been lowering Q3 estimates

Exhibit 3: Q3 2019 Guidance

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.