According to the flash estimate released on 31 July, the euro area returned to growth during the second quarter of this year, with economic activity increasing by 0.3%. In our latest Global Outlook Summer 2023, finalised early June, we changed one of our key calls and we no longer anticipate a global recession this year. The sharpest falls in real wages are now behind us and, in the US, real wages are rising. With a few exceptions, most major economies look to have navigated through the cost-of-living crisis while avoiding a period of economic contraction. They have dodged one bullet, but there are two more in the chamber. We are yet to see the full effects of the policy tightening that is already in place and, in some countries, most notably the UK, there is potentially much more to come.
Refresh this chart in your browser | Edit the chart in Datastream
The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, not necessarily those of Refinitiv Lipper or LSEG.
Join a growing community of asset managers and stay up to date with the latest research from Refinitiv and partners to help you inform your investment decisions. Follow our Asset Management LinkedIn showcase page.
_________________________________________________________________
Refinitiv Datastream
Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop view points on the market.
Refinitiv offers the world’s most comprehensive historical database for numerical macroeconomic and cross-asset financial data which started in the 1950s and has grown into an indispensable resource for financial professionals. Find out more.
