To date, 133 of the 190 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2025, representing 70% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 61% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 7% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates.
The Q4 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 2.2%.The blended revenue growth estimate for the 190 companies in this index is 5.1% for Q4 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 69% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 31 reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
Home Depot beat its Q4 2025 earnings, revenue, and same‑store sales (SSS) estimates. This marks the home improvement retailer’s first earnings beat in a year. Average ticket size rose 2.4%, driven by “some price increases, a greater mix of higher ticket items and customers continuing to trade up for new and innovative products.” (Source: Home Depot Q4 2025 Earnings Call) The company also noted during the call that it is closely monitoring the newly-announced tariffs.
Lowe’s also exceeded its Q4 earnings expectations, reporting an 11% jump in sales. Same‑store sales rose 1.3%, well above the 0.4% estimate, supported by “continued growth in Pro, online, and home services sales, as well as strong holiday performance.” (Source: Lowe’s Q4 2025 Earnings Release) Both home improvement retailers continue to be challenged by a soft housing market and elevated interest rates, which are prompting consumers to hesitate on major purchases and renovations. Despite this, Lowe’s reiterated that it remains confident in its ability to gain market share even in a difficult macroeconomic environment.
Consumers remain focused on value amid persistent inflation, and TJX continues to benefit from this trend. The off‑price retailer beat earnings and revenue expectations, posted a strong 5.0% SSS increase, and delivered healthy margin growth reflecting disciplined cost management and improved profitability. Nevertheless, the company issued cautious full‑year guidance.
As anticipated by StarMine, Dillard’s delivered a positive Q4 2025 earnings surprise. The department store has now beaten earnings for six consecutive quarters. Same‑store sales met expectations at –1.0%.
Looking ahead, Urban Outfitters is projected to deliver 5.1% same‑store sales growth, driven primarily by strength at Anthropologie and Free People.
Here are the latest Q4 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2025
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
