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The share of retail sales that were ‘online’ surged during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as lockdowns were enforced and people opted to buy online rather than in store. At the time, this raised questions about whether this would accelerate the move towards online retail or if it would simply be unwound as economies normalised. With hindsight, we can now see that the uptick caused by the pandemic, has been fully unwound with the share of online retail having reverted to its pre-pandemic trend (i.e., the online share of purchases has settled at a higher level than the pre-pandemic period, but this was to be expected given the trend towards online shopping). UK retail REITs (which reflect demand for high-street retail space) underperformed broader market indices, both in the lead-up to the pandemic and in the early few months of it, as demand for online retail versus high-street shopping increased. However, they appear to have bottomed out over the past two years, coinciding with online sales retreating to the pre-pandemic trend. Of course, further surprises in the growth of online retail could threaten the performance of these indices once again.
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