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According to the Bank of England’s 2022 Q3 Credit Conditions Survey, lenders reported that the availability of secured credit (mortgages) to households declined in the June-August period. Moreover, the net balance of banks and building societies expecting to tighten access to secured credit over the September-November period, was at its highest since 1Q 2008, when the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) was brewing. Ominously, the survey was taken before the ill-fated fiscal statement by then Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, which fuelled soaring mortgage rates and was followed by a rapid withdrawal of mortgage deals by providers. With the UK entering recession, and with real wages already falling, the outlook is looking increasingly bleak for house prices. We expect a decline of around 20%, close to what we saw in the GFC.
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