The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 12.7% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that eight of 10 consumer-related industries have turned positive. (Exhibit 1) (Many retail companies end their fiscal year on January 31 to account for the holiday shopping season, therefore, Q2 ended on July 31.) Of the 199 retailers tracked by LSEG, the broadline retail sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the first quarter, recording an 83.6% surge over last year’s level.

Amazon Prime Week is back again, and every year retailers ride the coattails of Prime Week with their own sales.  Inflation is still affecting retailers — during the last earnings season, 73% mentioned inflation during their earnings calls. Most retailers also agree that consumers are waiting for promotional events in order to shop, as they are cautious and are trading down. Therefore, during this Prime Week, it is very likely that retailers are betting that heavy promotions will entice shoppers to open up their wallets, especially since consumers have become value oriented. Amazon will offer its deals primarily online and

To date, 156 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2023, representing 77% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 79% announced that profits beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 20% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2023 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 32.7%. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 4.5% for Q1 2023. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 74% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and

As highlighted in a prior note (Data Insight: Soaring Ocean Freight Rates), shipping costs have soared over the last 18 months as bottlenecks in supply chains and increased consumer demand have put a strain on the shipping and logistics industry. AP Moeller-Maersk A/S (RIC: MAERSKb.CO), the world’s largest container shipping company, has been a strong beneficiary of this pricing environment. The Danish company has seen shares rise 47.6% year-to-date, which is the best year-to-date performance since 2005. Management has raised guidance three times this year, most recently on Sept. 16. It anticipates full-year earnings before interest & tax (EBIT) to

Refinitiv has seen big spikes in Eikon Usage data for airline, hotel and entertainment stocks as vaccination rates continue to rise (See exhibit 1).  Both the number of Eikon users and stock hits for these stocks have been on the rise and are considerably higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. The strong and positive correlation between the data sets is significant, underlying users’ prospects on the re-opening trade. Exhibit 1: U.S. Vaccinations % of Population vs. Airline, Hotels & Entertainment stocks views on Eikon Still, as COVID concerns return, these re-opening stocks keep being pushed back. These industries remain vulnerable as

Demand for the latest fashion trends is always strong in the weeks leading up to Easter, a time when retailers are still selling the season’s must-have Spring items at full price. Easter Sunday this year is April 4. The fact that consumers still appear to be willing to buy the latest fashion items now rather than waiting for a discount later, despite being mostly at home during the Covid-19 pandemic, is an encouraging sign for the retail industry. Easter is one of the largest retail buying holidays. In addition to the traditional Easter eggs and holiday-related groceries, the end of

Seventy three percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q4 2020 EPS. Of the 149 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 69% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 3% matched and 28% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q4 2020 blended earnings growth estimate is -10.7%. The Q4 2020 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.7%. Sixty nine percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 31% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv  Q4 2020 retail earnings Analysts polled by Refinitiv are becoming increasingly bullish on

Recently, many U.S. states have experienced a surge of coronavirus cases. One state in particular — Idaho — found that crowded pubs contribute more to the coronavirus spread than attending protests.  This is because consumers are removing their masks to enjoy their drinks, and that plays a huge role in the rise of cases. In addition, indoor places have limited ventilation and this also increases the health risk vs. attending an outdoor protest.  Coincidentally, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that pubs in the U.K. may reopen on Saturday, July 4. What does this all mean for this industry as

Russia’s $70 billion lender Sberbank is switching sides in the war for the country’s online-retail crown. The nation’s biggest bank is close to buying a 30% stake in online marketplace Ozon, Reuters reported, after untangling itself from a rival joint venture with search engine Yandex. There’s room for both players in a market enjoying a Covid-19 boost, but the usual political caveats apply. Ozon is having a good crisis, bolstering its chances of grabbing share in a market that lacks a dominant player like Amazon.com. Orders grew by 200% year-on-year in April as stay-at-home punters opted to have goods delivered.

“The end of the year appears to have sparked optimism about the future among consumers despite the current politico economic tension and uncertainty,” reports Chris Jackson of Ipsos. “Americans’ current confidence in the economy remains unchanged; however, as we look towards the new year, we see greater optimism particularly in our own personal financial situation.” Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Refinitiv, said, “ Consumers remain engaged as the holiday season progresses. Retailers are facing difficult sales comparisons from a year ago when consumer spending was robust. As a result, the Refinitiv Same Store Sales Index is looking for

All 208 companies in the Refinitiv Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2019 EPS. Of these companies, 68% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 6% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 26% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2019 blended earnings growth estimate is 4.0%. The Q3 2019 blended revenue growth estimate is 5.7%. Fifty five percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations and 45% reported revenue below analyst expectations. Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv Retail Sales and Earnings The U.S. government reported November retail sales that were a little below expectations. A

“Though there have been advances to resolve trade disputes between the United States and China, consumers still appear to be concerned about the implications of the dispute on the current and future health of their local economies,” reports Chris Jackson of Ipsos. “More Americans are reporting that they know someone who has lost their job as a result of the economic conditions adding further uncertainty to the current strength of the economy.” Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Refinitiv, said, “Retailers are also concerned about the trade war implications. Currently, they are reporting third quarter earnings, and 63 retailers