Q3 2019 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update Dec. 13, 2019

All 208 companies in the Refinitiv Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2019 EPS. Of these companies, 68% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 6% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 26% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2019 blended earnings growth estimate is 4.0%.

The Q3 2019 blended revenue growth estimate is 5.7%. Fifty five percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations and 45% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail Sales and Earnings

The U.S. government reported November retail sales that were a little below expectations. A late Thanksgiving weekend is moving a lot of those holiday sales into December. Still, the consumer remains engaged and the latest Refinitiv reading on consumer sentiment suggests consumers are upbeat about their future economic situation, despite uncertainty about trade tariffs.

Consumers remain engaged as the holiday season progresses. Retailers are facing difficult sales comparisons from a year ago when consumer spending was robust. As a result, the Refinitiv Same Store Sales Index is looking for a healthy 2.5% SSS Q4 2019 growth vs. 4.1.% SSS in Q4 2018.