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February 20, 2018

Q4 2017 U.S. Retail and Restaurant Earnings Dashboard

by Jharonne Martis.

4Q 2017 Retail and Restaurant Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • Q4 earnings are expected to increase 7.8% from Q4 2016.
  • 51% of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported 4Q 2017 EPS.
  • Of the 111 companies in the Retail/Restaurant Index that have reported earnings to date for Q4 2017, 77% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 8% matched, while 15% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
  • The Q4 2017 blended revenue growth estimate is 7.5%.
  • 69% have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 31% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
  • For Q1 2018, there have been 15 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to 8 positive EPS preannouncements.

Retailers this week: Feb. 20-23

Home Depot continues to smash expectations, posting a robust 7.5% Same Store Sales increase, above its 6.5% SSS estimate. HD also gave an upbeat financial forecast. Looking forward, Home Depot’s earnings are expected to continue to grow in the double digits over the next quarters. Meanwhile, Walmart beat same store sales, and revenue estimates, but missed on EPS. Also, online sales decelerated, and as a result, the stock plummeted after it reported.

Exhibit 1: Q4 2017 Estimates vs. Results

Negative guidance – next quarter

For Q1 2018, there have been 15 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to 8 positive EPS pre-announcements. So far, the amount of negative guidance is less vs. last year (Exhibit 2). Still, the bulk of the negative guidance (33%) comes from the apparel sector.

 Exhibit 2: Q1 2018 Earnings and Revenue Guidance

Source: I/B/E/S estimates


Of the 20 retailers that have reported Q4 Same Store Sales, 55% exceeded estimates, 5% matched while 40% missed.

Exhibit 3: Retail Same Store Sales Scorecard


Of the 15 restaurants that have reported Q4 Same Store Sales, 53% exceeded estimates, while 47% missed.

Exhibit 4: Restaurant Same Store Sales Scorecard

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S.

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