October 22, 2021

This Week in Earnings 21Q3 | Oct. 22

by Tajinder Dhillon and Thomas Alonso.

Last Update: Oct. 22, 2021

To download the full This Week in Earnings report click here.

Please note: if you use our earnings data, please source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • 21Q3 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 34.8%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 27.5%.
  • Of the 117 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q3, 83.8% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.8% and prior four quarter average of 84.7%.
  • 21Q3 Y/Y revenue is expected to be 14.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 11.7%.
  • During the week of Oct. 25, 165 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

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21Q3 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q3 is 34.8%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to 27.5%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $430.3B in 21Q3, compared to share-weighted earnings of $319.2B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q3.

All eleven sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q3. The energy and materials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the utilities sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q3.

The energy sector has the highest earnings growth rate (1537.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $21.3B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $-1.5B in 20Q3. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas exploration & production (1467.0%) and integrated oil & gas (975.1%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 1352.5%.

The materials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (95.6%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $15.9B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $8.1B in 20Q3. Nine of the 11 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The steel (1020.0%) and fertilizers & agricultural chemicals (988.0%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 63.0%.

The utilities sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (1.0%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $14.7B in 21Q3, compared to earnings of $14.5B in 20Q3. Two of the five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The gas utilities (-35.3%) and multi-utilities (-3.5%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 2.9%.

21Q4 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q4 is 22.8%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate declines to 16.1%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $435.3B in 21Q4, compared to share-weighted earnings of $354.5B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q4.

Ten of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q4. The energy and materials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the utilities sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q4.

The energy sector has the highest earnings growth rate (8067.4%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $23.3B in 21Q4, compared to earnings of $-0.3B in 20Q4. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The integrated oil & gas (2176.1%) and oil & gas exploration & production (1503.9%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 1930.3%.

The materials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (65.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $15.4B in 21Q4, compared to earnings of $9.3B in 20Q4. Ten of the 11 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The steel (474.0%) and fertilizers & agricultural chemicals (176.3%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 41.0%.

The utilities sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-0.4%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $8.6B in 21Q4, compared to earnings of $8.6B in 20Q4. One of the five sub-industries in the sector is anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The electric utilities (-2.5%) and multi-utilities (1.2%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector.  If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 8.1%.

Exhibit 1: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions by Sector

Exhibit 2: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions History

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