Q1 2024 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update May 16, 2024

To date, 143 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2024, representing 71% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 2% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 20.8%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 3.8% for Q1 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 50% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 50% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data from LSEG

Guidance

So far, 143 retailers have reported Q1 2024 earnings; of this group, 84 mentioned inflation.

Looking ahead to Q2 2024, 16 retailers issued negative preannouncements, while five issued positive EPS guidance so far (Exhibit 2). Of those retailers offering revenue guidance, 19 warned of disappointing results, while only seven said revenue might be better than previously expected.

Exhibit 2: Earnings and Revenue Guidance: Q2 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Here are the Q1 2024 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

Discount levels – U.S. online retailers

The discount penetration (how much of the assortment is on sale) has declined this year. LSEG discovered this in a collaboration with Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage, which analyzes retailers, brands, online trends and products across the globe. Two possible reasons are that consumer spending has improved, and retailers remained conservative as they introduce their new full-priced spring merchandise at full-price. For May, the discount penetration is 27%, slightly below last year’s May average of 32%.

Exhibit 4: Average Discount Penetration: U.S. Online Retailers

Source: Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage Co.

Accordingly, the average percent discount in May has also declined to 35%, below last year’s 37.0%.

Exhibit 5: Average Discount: U.S. Online Retailers

Source: Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage Co.