Q1 2024 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update May 21, 2024

To date, 147 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2024, representing 73% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 74% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 25% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 21.8%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 3.9% for Q1 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 51% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 49% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: I/B/E/S data

This week in retail

Both Macy’s and Lowe’s beat their Q1 earnings and Same Store Sales (SSS) estimates. Macy’s was upbeat about its store turnaround strategy. The department store raised its full year guidance and said “Our customers across all three nameplates continue to benefit from strong wage and job growth. However, inflationary pressures persist, and they’re feeling that pinch. The outlook provided on our fourth quarter earnings call as well as today’s update assumes our customers will continue to carefully scrutinize their discretionary purchases.” (Source: Macy’s Q1 2024 Earnings Call)

On the flip side, customers are opening their wallets for the latest fashion at Free People and Anthropologie. As a result, its parent company, Urban Outfitters, will receive a boost from both of these divisions. Free People has one of the strongest SSS in our index at 13.2%, despite facing a difficult comparison from a year ago. Meanwhile, Anthropologie has a 7.6% SSS estimate, which is helping Urban Outfitter post a 2.6% SSS for Q1.

Here are the Q1 2024 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S