The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 2025 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 2.2% growth over last year’s levels. Our metrics show that five of 10 consumer-related industries have turned negative (Exhibit 1).
Of the 190 retailers tracked by LSEG, the Leisure Products sector is headed for the highest earnings growth rate in the fourth quarter, recording an estimated 46.8% surge over last year’s level. The second-strongest sector is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure with an 18.8% growth estimate.
At the other end of the spectrum, Household Durables has the weakest anticipated Q4 2025 estimate, with profits expected to decline by -28.7% (Exhibit 1). To date, 90 of the 190 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2025, representing 47% of the index.
Exhibit 1: The LSEG Retail Earnings Growth Rate – Q4 2025
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
The strongest sector is the Leisure Products group. Of the seven companies in this group, four are on track to post positive estimated earnings growth for Q4. Hasbro and Brunswick reported the strongest earnings growth rates of 228.0%, and 141.7%, respectively. Similarly, Callaway Golf and Mattel reported robust earnings growth rates of 24.2% and 11.4%, respectively.
The second strongest sector is the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector. Within this group, United Natural Foods is on track to post the strongest estimated earnings growth rate at 156.3%. In fact, of the 51 companies in this category, only 17 are expected to report negative earnings growth for Q4. Caesar’s Entertainment and Cracker Barrel are projected to deliver weak results, with negative estimated earnings growth rates of -429.5% and -122.5%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Household Durables group is on track to post the weakest year-over-year earnings comparisons. Negative growth expectations are directly responsible for the forecast decline in the overall earnings growth rate within the group. Twenty-one out of 27 companies struggled to match year-ago earnings growth levels. Whirlpool Corp. already reported a 75.9% decline in earnings, while LGI Homes is on track to report -55.3% decline in earnings growth in the third quarter of 2025.
So far, 90 companies or 47.4% of those in our Retail/Restaurant Index, have reported earnings for Q4 2025. Of this group, 60% announced earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations, 7% matched and the remaining 33% reported earnings that fell below analysts’ predictions (Exhibit 2). The blended earnings growth estimate for Q4 2025 is 2.2%.
To date, 90 companies in the Retail/Restaurant index have reported revenue for Q4 2025. For this group, the Q4 2025 blended revenue growth estimate is 5.1%; 71% have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 29% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
Exhibit 2: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
Guidance
To date, 90 retailers have reported Q4 2025 earnings, with many citing elevated prices, persistent macroeconomic challenges and a more cautious consumer as key headwinds. Additionally, roughly half of these companies flagged tariffs as a drag on performance this quarter.
The bulk of retailers still have to report Q4 2025 results. Going into the quarter, 26 retailers issued negative preannouncements, while 15 issued positive EPS guidance for Q4 2025 so far (Exhibit 3). Of those retailers offering revenue guidance, 31 warned of disappointing results, while 19 said revenue might be better than previously expected in Q4 2025.
Looking forward to Q1 2026; 12 retailers issued negative earnings preannouncements, while only seven issued positive EPS guidance for Q1 2026. Of those retailers offering revenue guidance, eight warned of disappointing results, while four said revenue might be better than previously expected in Q1 2026.
Exhibit 3: Earnings and Revenue Guidance: Q4 2025 – Q1 2026
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
Retail sales
The LSEG Same Store Sales (SSS) index is expected to see a robust 4.8% gain in Q4 2025 (Exhibit 4). An increase of 3.0% in SSS signals that consumer spending is healthy. Looking back one year, Q4 2024 SSS notched a gain of 4.7% which makes this quarter’s estimate especially noteworthy.
It’s very important to note that due to the pandemic, the 2020-2022 results don’t offer an apples-to-apples comparison of current trends relative to previous years, as many retailers were closed due to shelter in place regulations.
Exhibit 4: LSEG Same Store Sales Index: 2021 – Present
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
When it comes to apparel, retailers that offer shoppers a steady stream of novelty tend to cultivate strong customer loyalty. Aritzia, in particular, beat its 19.5% SSS estimate and delivered the strongest same-store sales (SSS) result of the quarter, with an increase of 34.3%. Notably, seven of the top ten SSS performers this quarter are in the apparel category. Among the standouts, Genesco and American Eagle are expected to post SSS growth of 9.0% and 8.9%, respectively. Likewise, Anthropologie and Free People are driving a projected 5.1% gain for their parent company, Urban Outfitters.
At the same time, consumers continue to feel the pressure of elevated food prices, sustaining demand for discount retailers. These value-driven stores remain resilient, holding steady business volumes despite challenging year-over-year comparisons. Walmart, known for its strong value proposition and loyal customer base, is expected to post a 4.2% SSS increase. Meanwhile, Costco already reported a robust 6.4% gain, despite facing tough comparisons from a year ago.
Exhibit 5: Strongest Same Store Sales Estimates: Q4 2025 Estimate vs. Q4 2024 Actual
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
On the other hand, mall-based and big-box department stores continue to fall out of favor with consumers. Target and Kohl’s are projected to report weak Q4 2025 same-store sales (SSS) declines of -2.3% and -1.6%, respectively (see Exhibit 6). Other underperformers such as J. Jill, Kirkland, and Shoe Carnival remain in the bottom tier as they grapple with ongoing company-specific challenges.
Exhibit 6: Weakest Same Store Sales Estimates: Q4 2025 Estimate vs. Q4 2024 Actual
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
Restaurant Same Store Sales
The LSEG Restaurant Same Store Sales (SSS) index is expected to see a 1.9% growth in SSS in Q4 2025, on top of facing last year’s easy comparison of -1.3%. (Exhibit 7).
Within this industry, the Quick Service sector is on top with a 2.0% SSS estimate, stronger than the Casual Dining sector. The Casual Dining sector is on track to see a 1.7% SSS.
It’s important to note that, once again, the 2020-2022 results don’t offer an apples-to-apples comparison over previous years, given that quarantine rules and other pandemic restrictions forced many restaurants to close. As a result, a number of restaurants didn’t report SSS data during the pandemic.
Exhibit 7: LSEG Restaurant Same Store Sales Index: 2021 – Present
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
In the restaurant sector, approximately 68% of the companies in our same-store sales (SSS) index have reported or are on track to report positive Q4 2025 results. However, it’s important to note that many are facing difficult year-over-year comparisons. On the weaker end, CBRL Group has one of the lowest estimates at -8.4%, while Wingstop is expected to report a -6.6% decline as it is facing one of the toughest comparisons from a year ago with a 10.1% gain.
Exhibit 8: Weakest Restaurant Same Store Sales Estimates: Q4 2025 Estimate vs. Q4 2024 Actual
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
On the positive side, there are notable standouts. Brinker International already reported a 7.5% SSS, surpassing its 5.6% estimate and last year’s 7.5% growth. Similarly, Darden and Yum Brands already beat their SSS estimates and delivered solid comps of 4.3% and 3.0%, respectively.
Exhibit 9: Strongest Restaurant Same Store Sales Estimates: Q4 2025 Estimate vs. Q4 2024 Actual
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
