In January 2024, we published our 23Q4 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics. Using the Russell 1000 Index as our universe, our earnings surprise predictions scored 90% correct.
The StarMine SmartEstimate® is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our research has shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises or further revisions 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.
Since 2011 Q4, we’ve posted our earnings surprise candidates for earnings beats and misses. The running total from 2011 Q4 through 2023 Q4 of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates is 68.5% and 15.8% for companies that missed. Over this same period, the LSEG Proprietary Research team’s positive surprise candidates have been correct 84.8% of the time and correctly called 69.0% of negative surprise candidates.
StarMine Positive Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Beat Rate:
StarMine Negative Earnings Surprise History vs. S&P 500 Miss Rate:
Using SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data, we highlighted 10 companies with a high probability of reporting 23Q4 earnings surprises in the direction we called — five likely to beat the analysts’ consensus estimate and another five likely to fall short.
StarMine 23Q4 Russell 1000 Positive Earnings Surprise Results:
StarMine 23Q4 Russell 1000 Negative Earnings Surprise Results:
Interested in learning how you can use the StarMine SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise® to avoid earnings misses and find earnings beats? Learn more here.
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