To date, 143 of the 188 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2026, representing 76% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 71% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 3% delivered on-target results and 26% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 25.6%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 188 companies in this index is 7.0% for Q1 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 69% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 31% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
This week in retail
After four consecutive quarters of negative same store sales (SSS), Target delivered a strong turnaround, reporting Q1 SSS growth of 5.6%, well above its 2.5% estimate and marking its strongest comparable sales performance since Q4 2022. The retailer also exceeded both earnings and revenue expectations, with Q1 earnings rising 31.5% and revenue increasing 6.7% year-over-year. Store traffic improved meaningfully, with comparable traffic up 4.4% versus Q1 2025, signaling that more shoppers are returning to stores. Digital sales were boosted by same-day delivery through Target Circle 360, helping drive an 8.9% increase in digital comparable sales. Management noted that “topline strength was broad-based across merchandise categories, sales channels and across the quarter” (Source: Target Q1 2026 Earnings Report). Reflecting this momentum, Target raised its full-year sales outlook and maintained an optimistic view on consumer demand.
Home Depot topped earnings expectations, reporting EPS of $3.43, slightly ahead of consensus estimates. The retailer also exceeded Q1 revenue forecasts, with sales rising nearly 5% year-over-year to $41.8 billion, although same store sales (SSS) growth of 0.6% fell short of expectations. Results were supported by steady demand from professional contractors and smaller home improvement projects, which helped offset continued weakness in larger discretionary purchases. Management noted that higher gas prices, elevated mortgage rates, and broader consumer uncertainty continue to pressure DIY spending, particularly in big-ticket categories such as flooring and lumber, while smaller projects including paint and garden remained resilient. Despite softer comparable sales growth and ongoing housing market headwinds, Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year outlook, reflecting confidence in demand stability, market share gains within its Pro business, and contributions from its recent SRS acquisition.
Lowe’s delivered a similarly resilient quarter to Home Depot, beating both earnings and revenue expectations despite continued housing market headwinds. Like Home Depot, Lowe’s reported modest comparable sales growth of 0.6%, supported by strength in its Pro business, appliances, home services, and online sales, which rose 16%. However, both retailers noted that consumers remain cautious on larger discretionary home improvement projects as elevated mortgage rates, inflation, and higher fuel costs continue to pressure spending. Lowe’s maintained its full-year outlook, signaling confidence in demand stability despite a challenging macro backdrop.
Meanwhile, Hasbro exceeded both earnings and revenue expectations, reporting a 41.4% increase in earnings alongside 12.8% growth in Q1 revenue. The toy maker attributed the strong performance in part to continued momentum in its tabletop gaming business, particularly Magic: The Gathering. In recent years, Hasbro has successfully expanded its appeal among teens and adults through role-playing and trading-card franchises such as Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons. Reflecting confidence in continued demand, the company reaffirmed its full-year outlook.
TJX Companies also exceeded Q1 earnings and revenue expectations, driven by stronger-than-expected SSS growth of 6.0%, well above its 3.9% estimate. Performance was led by the HomeGoods division, which delivered robust comparable sales growth of 9%, while the company’s other banners also posted solid comp gains of 4.0% or higher. Management noted that the second quarter is off to a strong start and expressed confidence in ongoing initiatives aimed at driving traffic and attracting value-focused consumers across its retail banners. Reflecting continued momentum and resilient demand for off-price retail, TJX raised its full-year guidance.
Looking ahead, analysts surveyed by LSEG remain optimistic about Ross Stores’ Q1 performance, with results expected later this week. Consensus estimates currently call for Q1 2026 EPS of $1.72. However, a five-star rated analyst with a strong track record has issued a Bold Estimate of $1.84, well above consensus expectations. In addition, the StarMine Predicted Surprise is above 2%, signalling a strong likelihood that Ross Stores could deliver both an earnings beat and a positive surprise.
The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 2).
Other retailers with Predicted Surprise scores above 2.0% include:
Exhibit 2: The LSEG Retail/Restaurant Index Positive Earnings Surprise %: Q1 2026
Source: LSEG Workspace
Urban Outfitters is projected to report after the market close, with SSS expected to rise 4.7%. Growth is being driven by strength at Anthropologie and Free People, which are projected to deliver comparable sales gains of 2.3% and 5.4%, respectively, supporting momentum across the broader Urban Outfitters portfolio.
Here are the latest Q1 2026 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:
Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2026
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
