With the UK vaccination programme now having passed the government’s target of offering initial doses to the highest priority groups (over-seventies, clinically extremely vulnerable and frontline workers), focus is now turning towards the pace at which lockdowns are likely to be relaxed. As health officials are keen to stress, these decisions will be based on the spread of the disease as well as vaccine coverage. Reassuringly, both of these measures are currently moving in the right direction. Fathom’s central scenario remains optimistic, with a sharp recovery in output likely over the course of the year. A handful of countries have already recovered their pre-crisis levels. Based on the official data, the likes of Ireland, New Zealand and China managed to do this within one quarter of the relaxation of restrictions.
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